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Model picks & player props
Burnley
VS
Swansea City

Burnley vs Swansea City Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 12, 1:53PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 2:00PM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Burnley Head to Head (3-Way) +250

The model graded 4 markets for Burnley vs Swansea City (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $350 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 12 Sep 2026, 2:00PM at Swansea.com Stadium.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win35.4%
The price says27.4%
Best price+250
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Head to Head (3-Way) Burnley Long-shot35% chance +250
Moneyline Long-shot35% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Long-shot30% chance —
Moneyline Long-shot30% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →
Swansea City are the model's favourite to beat Burnley, with a 65% chance to win. Kick-off Sat 12 Sep, 2:00PM at Swansea.com Stadium. Best bet: Burnley at +250.
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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 63 of 130 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeSep 11
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Head to Head (3-Way)
Burnley
+250
+ 3 more markets
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All 4 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,889+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
BurnleyHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BurnleyMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Burnley on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Burnley
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Burnley

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Swansea City

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Burnley vs Swansea City: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineBurnley @ Swansea CityNo line posted
5-0-1past meetings (last 6)
Draw30%Home form5-6-9Away form2-7-11
past meetings, home wins5 / 6 home

In their last 6 meetings, Swansea City have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 1.

Both Teams to ScoreBurnley @ Swansea CityNo line posted
1 / 6past meetings, both scored
Swansea Ci50%Burnley75%Free board8-4
past meetings, both scored1 / 6 both scored

Both teams scored in 50% of Swansea City's and 75% of Burnley's recent matches.

Total GoalsBurnley @ Swansea CityOver +3.5 +164
1 / 6past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.535%Away ov2.565%past meetings avg1.8
past meetings, over 2.51 / 6 over

The last 6 meetings averaged 1.8 goals, over 2.5 in 1 of them; the model prices Over at 39% here.

Burnley @ Swansea City — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Burnley at Swansea City — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Burnley @ Swansea City — where the money went

Since betting opened on Burnley at Swansea City, the market has moved away from Burnley across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Burnley▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Swansea City -0.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Burnley 0.25▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Burnley 0.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Swansea City▲ Money came for this
Spread — Swansea City -0.25▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 2.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 2.5▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Burnley vs Swansea City in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Saturday 12 September 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 6 meetings on record
Swansea City 5–1 across the last 6 meetings · these games average 1.8 goals (meetings on record since 2014)
DateGameScoreWinner
10 Feb 2018Burnley @ Swansea City1–0Swansea City
18 Nov 2017Swansea City @ Burnley2–0Burnley
4 Mar 2017Burnley @ Swansea City3–2Swansea City
13 Aug 2016Swansea City @ Burnley0–1Swansea City
28 Feb 2015Swansea City @ Burnley0–1Swansea City
23 Aug 2014Burnley @ Swansea City1–0Swansea City
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