Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks (Emily Engstler Key Factor): Winning Game Angles

The odds of under 172 total points look promising for this matchup. Our numbers suggest that the combined score is likely to be around 163.5, which is well below that mark. Both teams haven't been scoring at their best lately, with Portland winning only 2 of their last 6 and Phoenix winning just 3 of their last 10. A concrete risk is that both teams are close in overall performance, which could lead to a back-and-forth scoring battle. Still, the trends favor a low-scoring game, making this a smart pick. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Emily Engstler Under 2.5 Assists (+108)

At the Moda Center, the Portland Fire are looking to take on the Phoenix Mercury. Emily Engstler has been playing well, but the stats suggest she might struggle to rack up assists in this matchup. The Fire have been forcing turnovers at a solid rate, and the Mercury allow a lot of three-point attempts, which can limit assist opportunities for players like Engstler. While Engstler could surprise us, the recent numbers show she might not reach three assists today. The Mercury have also been giving up a fair number of rebounds, meaning shots might not always lead to assists for her. With both teams having a mixed record lately, it's a close call, but betting under 2.5 assists feels like a smart pick. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alyssa Thomas Under 23.5 Points and Assists (-108)

The odds on Alyssa Thomas scoring under 23.5 points and assists looks pretty solid. Portland Fire has been playing well lately, winning 5 of their last 10 games. They are also great at forcing turnovers, which could limit Thomas's chances to rack up points and assists. On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury have struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. They give up a lot of rebounds and three-point shots, which means there might not be as many easy chances for Thomas. The most concrete risk here is how closely matched both teams are right now, making it tough to predict how Thomas will perform. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Natasha Mack Under 10.5 Points (-103)

Natasha Mack needs to score under 10.5 points tonight against the Phoenix Mercury. This is a solid pick because the Mercury have shown they struggle to defend against players like her, but they also allow a lot of three-point attempts. This could limit Mack's chances to rack up points if she's not hitting her shots. However, there's a risk with this bet since both teams have been inconsistent lately, and Mack could have a breakout game. The Fire have also won only 2 of their last 6 games, which might affect their overall scoring. Still, with the Mercury allowing a lot of rebounds, Mack's opportunities could be less than expected. It was priced at -103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Portland Fire v Phoenix Mercury. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.