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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 5:42PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay
Indoor
Thu 26 Feb 2026, 12:30AM
2
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 (Spread)
The model graded 3 markets for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $174 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 73.4%, fair odds 1.36, book price -135, model edge +16.0%. Tip-off Thu 26 Feb 2026, 12:30AM at Benchmark International Arena.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Toronto Maple Leafs
+1.5
-135
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinesPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Anthony Stolarz Toronto Maple Leafs Saves 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineToronto Maple Leafs +1.5No line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning — 2 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT
Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Calle Jarnkrok COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning — model preview

Deep dive into Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs hockey action. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Anthony Stolarz. Check out NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.

Anthony Stolarz (Toronto Maple Leafs) Under 26.5 Saves (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Anthony Stolarz is stepping on the ice as the Maple Leafs goalie on the road versus the Lightning, and I've got my eyes on the under 26.5 on total saves. Why, you ask? Stolarz's glove has been a little less busy on the road lately. In his last five away games, he averaged just 23 saves, three below our betting line. Not to mention, he's been facing a modest 26.2 shots per game, indicating a rather disciplined Leafs defence. Sure, he's had a decent hit rate of 6/9 in his last away games, but he's entering this game without any hit streak, a fact that shouldn't be overlooked. Considering all these factors, Stolarz sliding under the 26.5 saves looks like a smart bet. Let's not forget, in hockey, it's not just about the player's form, but the team dynamics that surround him.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Leafs vs Lightning, or as Lightning vs Leafs. The most recent game between them was Thursday 26 February 2026 at Benchmark International Arena. The model has generated 2 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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