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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 12:20AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay
Indoor
Thu 26 Feb 2026, 12:30AM
2
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 Spread -135

The model graded 3 markets for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $174 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 26 Feb 2026, 12:30AM at Benchmark International Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win73.4%
The price says57.5%
Best price-135
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 High73% chance -135
Puck Lines High99% chance —
Saves × 1 prop Leanup to 58% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Toronto Maple Leafs
+1.5
-135
+ 1 more market
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All 2 game markets and 1 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Anthony Stolarz Toronto Maple Leafs Saves

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineToronto Maple Leafs +1.5No line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning — 2 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent results

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Maple Leafs have won 0 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway
Toronto Maple Leafs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3OTTAway
L5–6DALHome
L2–6FLAHome
L3–5NYIAway
L0–4WSHHome

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Tampa Bay Lightning won 2, Toronto Maple Leafs won 0.

DateTampa Bay LightningToronto Maple LeafsWinner
Mar 852Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 2642Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT
Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Calle Jarnkrok COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning — model preview

Deep dive into Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs hockey action. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Anthony Stolarz. Check out NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.

Anthony Stolarz (Toronto Maple Leafs) Under 26.5 Saves (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Anthony Stolarz is stepping on the ice as the Maple Leafs goalie on the road versus the Lightning, and I've got my eyes on the under 26.5 on total saves. Why, you ask? Stolarz's glove has been a little less busy on the road lately. In his last five away games, he averaged just 23 saves, three below our betting line. Not to mention, he's been facing a modest 26.2 shots per game, indicating a rather disciplined Leafs defence. Sure, he's had a decent hit rate of 6/9 in his last away games, but he's entering this game without any hit streak, a fact that shouldn't be overlooked. Considering all these factors, Stolarz sliding under the 26.5 saves looks like a smart bet. Let's not forget, in hockey, it's not just about the player's form, but the team dynamics that surround him.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Leafs vs Lightning, or as Lightning vs Leafs. The most recent game between them was Thursday 26 February 2026 at Benchmark International Arena. The model has generated 2 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Lightning 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
8 Mar 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs2–5Tampa Bay Lightning
26 Feb 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning4–2Tampa Bay Lightning
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