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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
New York Islanders

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 9:18AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
UBS Arena, New York
Indoor
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 10:45PM
3
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 Spread -115

The model graded 5 markets for Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $187 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Apr 2026, 10:45PM at UBS Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win71.5%
The price says53.5%
Best price-115
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 High72% chance -115
Total Goals High99% chance —
Goals × 1 prop Leanup to 50% —
Saves × 1 prop Leanup to 56% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Toronto Maple Leafs
+1.5
-115
+ 2 more markets
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All 3 game markets and 2 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,430+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

New York Islanders

  • Semyon Varlamov GOut
  • Kyle Palmieri COut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bo Horvat New York Islanders Goals
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders Saves

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans New York IslandersNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineToronto Maple Leafs +1.5No line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders — 3 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 4 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders — recent results

New York Islanders have won 1 of their last 5 games; Toronto Maple Leafs have won 0 of their last 5.

New York Islanders — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2CARHome
L1–4MTLHome
L0–3OTTHome
W5–3TORHome
L3–4CARAway
Toronto Maple Leafs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3OTTAway
L5–6DALHome
L2–6FLAHome
L3–5NYIAway
L0–4WSHHome

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Islanders won 3, Toronto Maple Leafs won 0.

DateNew York IslandersToronto Maple LeafsWinner
Apr 953New York Islanders
Mar 1731New York Islanders
Jan 443New York Islanders

Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Islanders
PlayerStatus
Semyon Varlamov GOUT
Kyle Palmieri COUT
Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for New York Islanders playing Toronto Maple Leafs. Includes analysis on key players like Bo Horvat. Analysis includes NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.

Bo Horvat (New York Islanders) Over 0.5 Goals (+140)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs, Bo Horvat is the name to watch. Having lit the lamp consistently in his last five home games, the man is on fire! Horvat's been averaging 0.6 goals per game at home - not too shabby, huh? Even when you cast the net wider to include all recent games, he's been finding the back of the net 0.8 times per game. With over 2.8 shots per home game and an impressive overall average of 3.8 shots, it's clear Horvat's not shy about letting it rip. His current home run might be at zero, but with a solid hit rate of 2 out of 3 in his last 3 home games, and an impressive 3 out of 4 in his overall recent games, the odds are looking good for Horvat to go over 0.5 in the 'Player Goals' market. Go get 'em

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Leafs vs Islanders, or as Islanders vs Leafs. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 April 2026 at UBS Arena. The model has generated 3 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 3 meetings on record
New York Islanders 3–0 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Apr 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders5–3New York Islanders
17 Mar 2026New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs1–3New York Islanders
4 Jan 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders4–3New York Islanders
Today's selected board

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