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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
New York Islanders

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:48PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
UBS Arena, New York
Indoor
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 10:45PM
3
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 (Spread)
The model graded 5 markets for Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $187 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 71.5%, fair odds 1.40, book price -115, model edge +18.1%. Tip-off Thu 9 Apr 2026, 10:45PM at UBS Arena.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Toronto Maple Leafs
+1.5
-115
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

New York Islanders

  • Mathew Barzal COut
  • Semyon Varlamov GOut
  • Kyle Palmieri COut
  • Ryan Pulock DOut
  • Alexander Romanov DOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Bo Horvat New York Islanders Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders Saves 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans New York IslandersNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineToronto Maple Leafs +1.5No line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders — 3 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 4 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Islanders
PlayerStatus
Mathew Barzal COUT
Semyon Varlamov GOUT
Kyle Palmieri COUT
Ryan Pulock DOUT
Alexander Romanov DOUT
Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Zack MacEwen COUT
Max Domi COUT
Calle Jarnkrok COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for New York Islanders playing Toronto Maple Leafs. Includes analysis on key players like Bo Horvat. Analysis includes NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.

Bo Horvat (New York Islanders) Over 0.5 Goals (+140)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs, Bo Horvat is the name to watch. Having lit the lamp consistently in his last five home games, the man is on fire! Horvat's been averaging 0.6 goals per game at home - not too shabby, huh? Even when you cast the net wider to include all recent games, he's been finding the back of the net 0.8 times per game. With over 2.8 shots per home game and an impressive overall average of 3.8 shots, it's clear Horvat's not shy about letting it rip. His current home run might be at zero, but with a solid hit rate of 2 out of 3 in his last 3 home games, and an impressive 3 out of 4 in his overall recent games, the odds are looking good for Horvat to go over 0.5 in the 'Player Goals' market. Go get 'em

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Leafs vs Islanders, or as Islanders vs Leafs. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 April 2026 at UBS Arena. The model has generated 3 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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