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Model picks & player props
Toronto Maple Leafs
VS
New York Islanders

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:08PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
UBS Arena, New York
Indoor
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 10:45PM
3
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 (Puck Line)
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders (NHL), model win probability 71.5%, fair odds 1.40, book price -115, model edge +18.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Apr 2026, 10:45PM at UBS Arena.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Puck Line
Toronto Maple Leafs
1.5
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut

New York Islanders

  • Mathew Barzal COut
  • Semyon Varlamov GOut
  • Kyle Palmieri COut
  • Ryan Pulock DOut
  • Alexander Romanov DOut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Bo Horvat New York Islanders Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders Saves 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans New York IslandersNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineToronto Maple Leafs +1.5No line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders total-goals model lean and scoring trends (no settled over/under record yet).

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning bets for New York Islanders playing Toronto Maple Leafs. Includes analysis on key players like Bo Horvat. Analysis includes NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats and odds.</p>

Bo Horvat (New York Islanders) Over 0.5 Goals (+140)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs, Bo Horvat is the name to watch. Having lit the lamp consistently in his last five home games, the man is on fire! Horvat's been averaging 0.6 goals per game at home - not too shabby, huh? Even when you cast the net wider to include all recent games, he's been finding the back of the net 0.8 times per game. With over 2.8 shots per home game and an impressive overall average of 3.8 shots, it's clear Horvat's not shy about letting it rip. His current home run might be at zero, but with a solid hit rate of 2 out of 3 in his last 3 home games, and an impressive 3 out of 4 in his overall recent games, the odds are looking good for Horvat to go over 0.5 in the 'Player Goals' market. Go get 'em

Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders) Over 22.5 Saves (-108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the New York Islanders prepare to skate on their home ice against the Toronto Maple Leafs this Thursday, all eyes are on Ilya Sorokin. While Sorokin's home stats might not initially wow you, with an average of 19 saves over his last five home games, we're seeing an uptick in his overall performance. Across his last five games, regardless of venue, he's been stopping an average of 24.6 shots. His tenacity is undeniable, and it's been paying off – he's hit the over in 14 of his last 20 games. Now, we know the Leafs are no lightweights when it comes to peppering the net, and Sorokin will certainly have his work cut out for him. However, given his solid performance and the Leafs' persistent attacking style, Sorokin has a great shot at making over 22.5 saves. So, let's ride the momentum and back Sorokin to go over his total saves line.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Apr 26 Puck Line Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders in the NHL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 9 April 2026 at UBS Arena. The model has generated 3 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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