New England Patriots vs New York Jets Prediction & Picks, October 18, 2026

The New England Patriots have shown some improvement on offense lately, and they're playing at home, which usually gives them a boost. The Jets' defense has been decent, but they can allow points, especially when facing a team that's finding its rhythm. With the Patriots needing to score to keep their playoff hopes alive, they could push hard for a solid showing. Betting on the Patriots to score over 17.5 points feels like a fair shot. However, it's important to note that this matchup is rated close to a coin flip, meaning it's not a sure thing. If the Jets' defense plays at its best, it could make things tough for New England to reach that number.

New England Patriots vs New York Jets: Drake Maye Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

For this game, we need Drake Maye to rush for fewer than 26.5 yards against the New York Jets. With the Jets having a strong defense, it's tough for quarterbacks to find room to run. Maye may struggle to break through their tough line, especially since he's still finding his footing in the NFL. While Maye has some talent, the Jets are known for shutting down run plays. If he gets pressured, he might not have a chance to rack up many yards. This matchup is rated close to a coin flip, which shows it could go either way, but with the Jets' defense in mind, the under looks like a solid pick tonight.

New England Patriots vs New York Jets: Garrett Wilson Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The odds for Garrett Wilson to go under 73.5 receiving yards look solid at -114. Our numbers show he has a good chance to fall short of that mark, especially against the New England Patriots' tough defense. The Patriots are known for shutting down opposing receivers, and they have shown they can limit big plays. One concrete risk is that the Jets' quarterback, Zach Wilson, has been improving, which could lead to more passing attempts. However, the Patriots are well-prepared and have had extra time to rest and strategize. Overall, it seems like a smart pick to take the under on Wilson's receiving yards in this matchup.

New England Patriots vs New York Jets: Geno Smith Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The odds of under 219.5 passing yards for Geno Smith look appealing at -114. Our numbers give this bet a good chance, especially considering the matchup against the New England Patriots. Their defense has been tough, making it hard for quarterbacks to throw for big yardage. Geno Smith has been solid, but he faces a challenging task on the road. The Patriots are known for stifling opposing offenses, and this could lead to a lower passing game than usual. The tight nature of this matchup adds some risk, as both teams will be looking to control the game.

That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.