On Sunday 11 October 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool +0 Goal Handicap, priced at +115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Liverpool +0 Goal Handicap (+115)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the stage is set for a thrilling clash. Liverpool, despite a mixed home record recently, has shown resilience, particularly against top teams, with a 2-1-2 record in their last five encounters with City. Their recent home performance, averaging 1.4 goals and restricting opponents to just 0.8, suggests a solid defensive unit, while their xG stats highlight potential for more offensive fireworks. Meanwhile, City arrives riding high on a five-match winning streak, but Liverpool’s Anfield fortress can be intimidating, often leveling the playing field. The Reds are due for a breakout, and with their home advantage, this could be the moment. Betting on Liverpool at 0 in the handicap market feels justified—they’re primed to challenge City head-on, and if they can find their rhythm, a draw or narrow victory could be very much in the cards.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-556)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the stage is set for a high-octane encounter. Liverpool's home scoring average stands at 1.4 goals in their last five matches, but their defensive frailties have allowed an average of 1 goal against. Meanwhile, City has been a scoring machine lately, averaging 2.6 goals in their last five outings, including a solid 2 goals per game on the road. Both teams have a history of producing thrilling contests, with their last five meetings ending with a mix of results that imply plenty of action. Considering the attacking prowess of City and the vulnerability of Liverpool's defense, expecting at least two goals is a reasonable bet. With City's current momentum and Liverpool's need to reclaim home ground, backing the 'Over 1.5' goals feels like a savvy play in this electrifying clash.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.