Here are our EPL picks for Saturday 24 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +240 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 0.5 Shots (+240)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Manchester United welcomes Bournemouth, all eyes should be on Adam Smith to surprise us with a bit of attacking flair. While his recent numbers might suggest he's been quiet-averaging just 0.2 shots away-it's worth noting that he's often positioned to exploit spaces when his side counters. United's defense can be vulnerable, especially with their high line, which can leave room for Smith to take a shot or two if he finds himself in the right place at the right time. Moreover, with Bournemouth likely to defend deep, Smith might be encouraged to push forward, looking for opportunities that could lead to a shot. Given the unpredictability of this fixture and Bournemouth's need to score, the odds are in our favor for him to go over 0.5 shots. Sometimes, it's those quiet players who step up when you least expect it, making this bet a compelling angle to consider.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Coventry City prepares to face Fulham, all eyes should be on Joel Latibeaudiere, especially when considering the Over 0.5 shots on target market. While his recent form shows a modest average of just 0.2 shots overall and 0.4 at home, the context reveals a compelling story. Latibeaudiere operates in a team that thrives on attacking momentum, and in this fixture, expect plenty of chances to unfold. Fulham's defense has shown vulnerability away from home, which could present opportunities for Latibeaudiere to test the keeper. Given the stakes and the potential for an attacking showcase, taking a flier on Latibeaudiere to register at least one shot on target feels like a savvy play - especially with such favorable conditions at home.
Adam Smith (AFC Bournemouth) Over 1.5 Shots (+1900)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Bournemouth gears up to face Manchester United, Adam Smith is an intriguing player to consider for the Over 1.5 total shots prop. While his recent averages may seem modest-0.4 overall and a mere 0.2 away-this matchup presents a unique opportunity. United's defense can be vulnerable, especially when they're under pressure. Smith's role in the squad often finds him pushing forward, seeking opportunities to exploit gaps. Given that Bournemouth will likely need to adopt an attacking approach to keep pace in a hostile environment, Smith could find himself taking more shots than usual. If Bournemouth can create a few chances, Smith's shot tally could easily exceed that 1.5 mark. In a league where surprises are the norm, investing in Smith might just pay off handsomely this Sunday.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Everton heads to the Emirates, all eyes should be on James Tarkowski, a player whose role might surprise many. While he's not your typical playmaker, Tarkowski's ability to find teammates in dangerous positions shouldn't be underestimated. With Everton often setting up defensively against powerhouse teams like Arsenal, Tarkowski's long balls could be crucial in transitioning play. Although he has averaged just 0.2 assists per game lately, the underlying potential is there. His capability to deliver key passes, despite his recent numbers showing a drought, indicates that he often finds himself in the right spots. With Arsenal likely dominating possession, Tarkowski could capitalize on counter-attack opportunities. The odds suggest a favorable chance for him to notch at least one assist, making the Over 0.5 a compelling choice in this high-stakes matchup. In a game where surprises can happen, Tarkowski might just deliver a moment of brilliance.
Eberechi Eze (Arsenal) Yes To Be Carded (+1600)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Eberechi Eze stepping onto the pitch at the Emirates this weekend brings an intriguing narrative to the card market. While his recent stats may suggest a calm demeanor-averaging almost zero cards both at home and overall-it's the context of the match that makes this bet tantalizing. Arsenal's attacking style often provokes frantic defensive reactions, and with Everton likely to be on the back foot, Eze could find himself in situations where reckless challenges become necessary to halt Arsenal's momentum. Add to that the pressure of the occasion-facing a high-caliber opponent like Arsenal can push players to their limits. With Eze's involvement in defensive duties likely on the rise, betting on him to see a card feels like a smart play in this high-stakes encounter.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Crystal Palace faces Newcastle United at home, all eyes should be on Takehiro Tomiyasu to find the back of the net. Sure, his recent scoring record may seem modest, averaging just 0.2 goals per home game, but this match presents a unique opportunity. With Palace looking to assert their dominance on familiar turf, Tomiyasu's positioning as a wing-back could prove pivotal in creating goal-scoring chances. His recent home shot average of 1.2 per game shows he's not afraid to venture forward, and with Newcastle's defense susceptible to surprise bursts, he might just catch them off guard. While his overall hit rate isn't stellar, this is a classic case of seizing the moment. At a generous price, the potential for a Tomiyasu goal feels like a gamble worth taking, especially with the home crowd behind him. Sometimes, it's the unexpected players who shine the brightest on the big stage.
That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article