Here are our AFL picks for Sunday 23 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Dyson Sharp (Essendon) Under 22.5 Disposals, priced at -114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Dyson Sharp (Essendon) Under 22.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to the Essendon Bombers clash against Port Adelaide Power, all eyes are on Dyson Sharp to make an impact on the field. Sharp has been a consistent force in recent games, but the data suggests a different story this time. Over his last five home games, he's averaged 20.6 disposals, showing solid form but has a model prediction of 19.6, indicating a potential dip in his usual output. With a line set at 22.5, there's a clear opportunity to capitalize on Sharp potentially falling short of his recent performance. His recent home games against Port Adelaide also show a dip in disposals compared to his overall average, making the under 22.5 disposals seem like a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.
Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 11.5 Disposals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Angus Clarke is primed to shine in the upcoming Essendon vs. Port Adelaide showdown at Marvel Stadium. Clarke's recent form at home has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 13.8 disposals per game in his last five home matches. With his knack for finding space and racking up kicks (9.4 avg), coupled with solid disposal efficiency (79.8%), Clarke is a pivotal asset in Essendon's midfield. Facing Port Adelaide, Clarke's mettle will be tested, but his proficiency in contested possessions (3.2 avg) and ability to cover ground (268.8 metres gained avg) make him a strong candidate to surpass the 11.5 disposal line. Clarke's consistency, especially at home, where he's hit the mark in 3 out of the last 4 games, bodes well for this bet. Trust in Clarke to deliver the goods and snag those disposals.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Callum Mills hitting the under on 26.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Sydney Swans and North Melbourne Kangaroos, the stats paint a clear picture. Despite his recent solid form, averaging 24.4 disposals in his last 5 home games, he faces a North Melbourne side where he averages 22.7 disposals against them at home. With an overall average of 21.4 disposals in his last 5 games, and a model predicting 23.2 disposals, the under seems like a smart play. Mills' consistency is commendable, but the matchup dynamics suggest he might fall just short this time. Combine that with his recent hit streaks, and the under looks even more enticing. Trust the numbers to guide you towards a profitable bet on Mills for this game.
Joe Berry (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (+100)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at Joe Berry's recent form, there's a compelling case for backing him to snag at least one goal in the upcoming clash against Essendon. Despite averaging 0.6 goals in his last five away games, Berry's goal accuracy sits at a respectable 18.3%. With an average of 1.4 shots at goal per game, he's consistently putting himself in scoring positions. Additionally, his 2.8 score involvements per game highlight his impact in Port Adelaide's forward line. Facing Essendon, against whom he averages a goal per game, Berry's track record suggests he's poised to make an impact. The odds are in our favor for Berry to continue his scoring trend and split the middle at Marvel Stadium.
Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 10.5 Disposals (-250)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, you want someone consistent, reliable, and hungry for the footy. Look no further than Angus Clarke of the Essendon Bombers. Clarke, playing at home at Marvel Stadium against Port Adelaide, has been on a tear lately, averaging a solid 13.8 disposals in his last five home games. With an impressive 79.8% disposal efficiency and an average of 9.4 kicks per game during this stretch, Clarke knows how to find the footy and make an impact. Plus, with his recent form showing 4 out of 5 home games hitting the mark, and a model predicting him to exceed 16 disposals, the odds are in his favor to snag Over 10.5 disposals against the Power. Get ready to watch Clarke split the middle with his pinpoint passes and dominate the possession game on Sunday.
Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Under 21.5 Disposals (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Finn O'Sullivan, the midfield maestro for the Kangaroos, has been a reliable cog in the engine room lately. Despite his recent form, the numbers suggest he might fall just short of the 21.5 disposal line against the Swans at the SCG. Over his last five away games, Finn has averaged 15.8 disposals, with a slight dip in contested possessions and kicks. While he's been consistent, his numbers against the Swans and overall hover around the 20-mark, showing a trend that aligns with our under play. With an efficiency of 75.2% but fewer opportunities in contested situations, Finn might snag a goal or two but could struggle to rack up the possessions needed to hit that 21.5 threshold. Trust the data and look for Finn to fall just short in this matchup.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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