On Saturday 22 August 2026, Geelong Cats play Richmond Tigers in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Tim Taranto (Richmond) Over 19.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Tim Taranto (Richmond) Over 19.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to AFL betting, Tim Taranto is the type of player you want to back with confidence. His recent form is nothing short of stellar, especially in away games where he's been a dominant force. Averaging 24.2 disposals in his last five away matches, Taranto consistently outperforms the 19.5 line set for him in this clash against Geelong. His ability to find the ball, coupled with his impressive disposal efficiency of 60.9%, makes him a reliable option for this prop bet. Facing Geelong, a team he historically performs well against, with an average of 26.3 disposals in their last five encounters, Taranto is poised to continue his exceptional run. With a current hit streak of 5 in away games and 12 overall, the data strongly supports backing Taranto to surpass the 19.5 disposals mark with ease in this showdown.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-667)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's talk about why Patrick Dangerfield is a prime target for smashing the Over 9.5 disposals mark in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers clash at GMHBA Stadium. When Dangerfield's in the comfort of his home turf, he's been feasting lately, averaging a solid 15.4 disposals over his last five home games. Against Richmond, he's even more of a ball magnet, averaging a hefty 20.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With a model prediction sitting at 15.2, boasting a 2.6% edge, Dangerfield's poised to not only meet but exceed that 9.5 line. The stats paint a clear picture of his dominance at home, making this bet on Dangerfield's disposal count a tantalizing prospect for footy punters looking to snag a win.
Tim Taranto (Richmond) Over 20.5 Disposals (-455)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to AFL midfielders who can impact a game, Tim Taranto stands out as a prime candidate. In his last five away matches, Taranto has been a prolific ball-winner, averaging an impressive 24.2 disposals. Facing the Geelong Cats, a team he has historically performed well against with an average of 26.3 disposals in their recent matchups, Taranto is primed to continue his dominance. With a solid disposal efficiency of 60.9% on the road and a knack for gaining valuable meters (avg. 332.8), Taranto is not just a quantity player but also a quality contributor. His recent form, including an average of 12.6 kicks and 11.6 handballs per game away from home, indicates he is well-positioned to surpass the 20.5 disposals line set by the bookmakers. Taranto's consistency and ability to find the ball make him a compelling pick for this prop bet.
That is how our model reads Geelong Cats v Richmond Tigers. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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