Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 27 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fanatics, let's dive into the upcoming clash between the Fremantle Dockers and the Hawthorn Hawks at Optus Stadium. The Dockers are riding high on a wave of dominance, especially at home, where they've been a force to be reckoned with. Over their last five home games, Fremantle has been putting on an offensive clinic, averaging a whopping 94.8 points per game while keeping their opponents to a meager 52.4 points. Their inside 50s and shots on goal numbers are equally impressive, showing a relentless attacking style that's hard to contain. On the flip side, the Hawks have been decent on the road but have struggled to match Fremantle's offensive firepower. With the Dockers boasting an average winning margin of 42.4 points at home, taking them at -16.5 seems like a smart play considering their recent form and scoring prowess. Expect Fremantle to snag a comfortable victory and cover the spread with ease.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks Win (+196)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Hawthorn Hawks swoop into Optus Stadium to take on the Fremantle Dockers, the stats paint a compelling picture. Over their last five away games, the Hawks have been soaring high, averaging 98.4 points for and conceding just 69 points against. Their prowess in clearances (38.8) and contested possessions (137.4) gives them a strong midfield foundation to dominate the game. On the other hand, the Dockers have struggled at home, with an average margin of 42.4 points against and only 94.8 points for. With Hawthorn's efficient ball movement, solid defense, and ability to convert shots at goal, backing the Hawks to snag the win seems like a savvy play in this clash.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks 16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Hawthorn Hawks at +16.5 in their clash against the Fremantle Dockers could be a savvy move. Recent form paints an intriguing picture. The Hawks have been flying high, averaging a solid 98.4 points in their last five away games, while holding opponents to 69 points on average. Their attacking prowess, with an average of 31.2 shotsatgoal per game, could trouble the Dockers' defense. On the flip side, Fremantle has struggled defensively at home, conceding an average of 52.4 points in their last five games at Optus Stadium. Their margin average of 42.4 in these games suggests they've been leaking goals. With the Hawks' scoring ability and the Dockers' defensive vulnerabilities, Hawthorn's +16.5 line looks appealing in this matchup. Expect a close contest with the Hawks having the firepower to keep it tight.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Melbourne Demons are firing on all cylinders heading into this clash against the struggling Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG. In their last five home games, the Demons have been dominant, boasting an average margin of 10.2 points and racking up an impressive 98.2 points per game. Their midfield battle is a force to be reckoned with, averaging 37.4 total clearances and 138.2 contested possessions in their recent home fixtures. On the defensive end, they've been solid, conceding just 88 points on average. In contrast, Carlton has been inconsistent on the road, struggling to contain opponents and only managing 81.6 points per game away. With Melbourne's strong form and Carlton's road woes, backing the Demons to snag the win in the head-to-head market looks like a smart play.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Folks, let's dive into the upcoming clash between the Western Bulldogs and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. The Bulldogs have been barking fiercely at home lately, but Collingwood's defense is no stranger to a tough scrap. In their last five home games, the Bulldogs have been peppering the goals with an average of 24.6 shots but have only managed to snag an average of 12 goals. On the flip side, Collingwood has been a defensive wall on the road, conceding an average of 90.8 points. With the line set at 41.5, the under for the Bulldogs in the first half seems like a shrewd play. Expect a fierce battle early on, with both teams leaving it all on the field. So, lock in that bet and get ready to witness some footy magic under the Friday night lights!
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies: Under 20.5 team_totals_q1 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's break down why hitting the 'Under 20.5' for the Western Bulldogs in the Team Totals Q1 market against the Collingwood Magpies could be the smart play this Friday at the MCG. The Bulldogs have been a bit off their scoring pace lately, averaging around 12 target goals in their last 5 games. Despite their solid inside 50s and shots at goal numbers, their points for average sits at 80.2 overall. Facing off against a Collingwood defense that's been stingy, conceding just under 91 points on average in their away games and a hefty 103.4 on the season, the Bulldogs might struggle to pile on the early points. With the pressure Collingwood can bring, the Bulldogs might find it tough to snag a big score in the opening quarter. So, keep your eye on that 'Under 20.5' line for the Doggies in the first quarter. It could be a goldmine come game time.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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