Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks (Emily Engstler Key Factor): Winning Game Angles

The bet is on under 170.5 total points, and our numbers think that's a solid choice. Portland Fire has been playing tough, forcing turnovers at a good rate, while Phoenix Mercury has struggled a bit lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. The Fire also tend to limit scoring, and both teams have had their ups and downs with points. A big worry is that the teams are closer than they seem, so a tight game could lead to more defense than offense. Overall, under 170.5 looks promising. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Emily Engstler Under 14.5 Points (-111)

Portland Fire's Emily Engstler has been scoring under 14.5 points in several recent games, which makes this bet seem promising. The Fire have won five of their last ten games, but they've struggled a bit lately, winning only two of their last six. On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury have allowed opponents to take a lot of three-point shots and grab plenty of rebounds, which could make it tougher for Engstler to find her rhythm. Even with the close matchup, the risk here is that both teams have had their ups and downs recently, so it's hard to predict exactly how it will play out. Engstler might find opportunities, but the Mercury's defense could keep her scoring in check. This bet is a bit of a gamble, but it's worth considering based on current trends. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 Points (-114)

The odds for Alyssa Thomas to score under 15.5 points look promising. The Portland Fire have been solid at forcing turnovers, which can disrupt scoring for the Phoenix Mercury. Plus, the Mercury have allowed a lot of three-point attempts, which could divert focus from scoring in the paint, where Thomas usually shines. While Thomas has talent, the Fire's strong defense might make it tough for her to find her rhythm. The Mercury have also struggled with rebounding, yet if they can manage to box out effectively tonight, it could limit her second-chance opportunities. It's a close matchup, so keep that in mind. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Natasha Mack Under 9.5 Points (+151)

For this bet to work, Natasha Mack needs to score under 9.5 points tonight against the Phoenix Mercury. The Portland Fire have been solid defensively, forcing turnovers and limiting scoring chances. Mack may find it tough to rack up points since the Mercury give up a lot of three-point shots, which can affect how she plays. Mack has also been inconsistent recently, and the Fire have only won 2 of their last 6 games. One concrete risk is that the Mercury allow opponents to grab plenty of rebounds, which could lead to more second-chance points. Still, with a good chance for this bet, it's worth taking a look tonight. It was priced at +151 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25.10 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Portland Fire v Phoenix Mercury. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.