Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks (Alyssa Thomas Key Factor): Winning Game Angles

Portland Fire are facing the Phoenix Mercury, and this game is expected to be very close. The Fire have a slight advantage playing at home, and they're only about a point behind Phoenix in win percentage, making this a near coin flip. Both teams have had a tough season, but Portland seems to be finding their rhythm lately. The Mercury have to travel quite a distance, which can be tiring. With the spread at just 1.5 points, I think taking Portland to cover is a solid choice, even if it could go either way. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 Points (-114)

The odds for Alyssa Thomas to score under 15.5 points look promising. The Portland Fire have been solid at forcing turnovers, which can disrupt scoring for the Phoenix Mercury. Plus, the Mercury have allowed a lot of three-point attempts, which could divert focus from scoring in the paint, where Thomas usually shines. While Thomas has talent, the Fire's strong defense might make it tough for her to find her rhythm. The Mercury have also struggled with rebounding, yet if they can manage to box out effectively tonight, it could limit her second-chance opportunities. It's a close matchup, so keep that in mind. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Emily Engstler Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-114)

At the Moda Center, Emily Engstler of the Portland Fire faces the Phoenix Mercury. Both teams have had mixed results lately, with Portland winning five of their last ten games, while Phoenix has only managed three wins over the same stretch. One key thing to note is that the Mercury allow opponents to attempt a lot of three-pointers, which could make things tough for Engstler. Engstler has not been a three-point shooter who lights it up, and our numbers say her chances of hitting more than 1.5 shots from behind the arc are pretty close to even. The most concrete risk is that both teams play similar styles, making it tough for any player to shine. So, while this bet could go either way, it makes sense to go with the under here. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Natasha Mack Under 11.5 Points (-130)

For Natasha Mack to score under 11.5 points tonight, she needs to face a solid defensive effort from the Phoenix Mercury. They've allowed opponents to shoot a lot of threes and grab plenty of rebounds, which can limit scoring chances. The Portland Fire have also been forcing turnovers at a good rate, which might disrupt the flow of the game and impact Mack's opportunities. Mack has scored over 11.5 points in some games, but she's been quiet lately, with Portland winning only 2 of their last 6. Given that both teams have struggled recently, it could be a tight game, and the Mercury's defense may clamp down on her. There's a solid chance she stays under that number tonight. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Portland Fire v Phoenix Mercury. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.