On Friday 18 September 2026, Minnesota Lynx play New York Liberty in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is New York Liberty +6 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
New York Liberty +6 on the Line (+110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The New York Liberty are facing off against the Minnesota Lynx, and this game looks really close. The Liberty have been playing well, and while the Lynx have a slight advantage in their recent games, it's not a big gap. Our numbers suggest this matchup is nearly even, and with the Liberty getting 6 points, it feels like a good chance for them to keep it close or even win. The main risk is that the Lynx are at home, where they usually play better. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 183.5 Total Points (-217)
Odds available at William Hill at time of publishing
The Minnesota Lynx have been solid lately, but the New York Liberty brings some tough competition. We're betting on the total points to be under 183.5. Our numbers suggest that the combined score will be around 162.9, which is a fair bit lower than what we're betting on. The Liberty and Lynx both focus on defense, and recent games show they've been limiting their opponents' scoring. The most concrete risk here is that both teams are quite close in win percentage, which could lead to a surprising offensive burst. It was priced at -217 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.60 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
Leonie Fiebich has been showing some solid play lately, especially with her rebounding. The numbers suggest she's likely to grab over 3.5 rebounds in this matchup against the New York Liberty. She's been pulling down around 2 offensive rebounds in recent games, which is better than usual. While the Liberty can be tough, Fiebich's recent form gives her a good shot at hitting this number. Just keep in mind, the teams are pretty evenly matched lately, which could make things a bit tricky. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Breanna Stewart Under 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-111)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Breanna Stewart needs to score fewer points and grab fewer rebounds than 27.5 tonight against the Minnesota Lynx. She has been playing well, but her recent numbers show she's not hitting those marks consistently. In her last five games, she's making just a bit under her usual field goals, and her offensive rebounds are also lower than what we typically see from her. The Lynx will put up a strong defense, making it tough for Stewart to find her rhythm. Plus, with both teams having a close matchup, there's a chance that they will focus more on defense. The biggest risk is that Stewart could still break out and have a big game, but right now, it looks like she might stay under that total. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jonquel Jones Under 16.5 Points and Assists (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Jonquel Jones is a talented player, but she hasn't been putting up huge numbers lately. In her recent games, her points and assists combined have been lower than usual, averaging just under 16.5. The Minnesota Lynx have a strong defense, which can make it tough for her to get high scores, especially at home in Target Center where they play hard. The risk here is that Jones can surprise everyone and have a breakout game, but given her recent performance and the way the Lynx defend, betting on her to score under 16.5 points and assists makes sense. This matchup feels pretty close, so while there's no guarantee, the numbers suggest this is a smart pick. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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