Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks (A'ja Wilson Key Factor): Our Expert Analysis

The Las Vegas Aces are on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring a whopping 91.2 points per game. However, the Phoenix Mercury have faced a tough schedule, making it hard for them to keep up. The Aces might be strong, but the Mercury have only won 3 of their last 10 games, which shows they struggle lately. That's why I like the bet on the total points being under 176. Our numbers suggest a combined score closer to 170.5, and with both teams' recent forms, it feels like a solid pick. Just remember, the Aces could easily break out and score big, so that's a risk to think about. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110)

A'ja Wilson has been on fire lately, helping the Las Vegas Aces win 7 of their last 10 games. With the Aces scoring a whopping 91.2 points a game, there's plenty of chances for rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury have struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10, and they face one of the toughest schedules in the league. A'ja has a solid shot at grabbing over 9.5 rebounds, but the Mercury's defense can surprise, so that's a key factor to watch. Overall, this looks like a strong pick for A'ja to hit that number. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jackie Young Under 4.5 Rebounds (-110)

Jackie Young has been on fire for the Las Vegas Aces lately, but the Phoenix Mercury have a tough schedule that makes scoring and rebounding tricky for them. With only 3 wins in their last 10 games, the Mercury struggle to keep up with high-scoring teams. Young might have a great game, but the matchup against the Mercury suggests she could have less opportunity to grab those rebounds. Betting on Jackie Young to get under 4.5 rebounds seems smart here. The Aces are winning games with a strong offense, but Young might face a tougher time on the boards against the Mercury's defense. The risk is that this could be a close game, and she might still find a way to rack up those rebounds if the game gets physical. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kahleah Copper Under 19.5 Points (-112)

Kahleah Copper has been on fire, but the Phoenix Mercury have had a tough time lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. The Las Vegas Aces are rolling, winning 7 of their last 10 and scoring a ton of points. With the Aces playing strong defense, it makes it harder for anyone on the Mercury to rack up big numbers. Copper averages more points at night, but the Aces' defense might keep her under 19.5 points. The chance looks good for this bet because of the Aces' recent form and how they have held other players in check. The biggest risk is that Copper can get hot, but overall, it seems like a smart pick to go with the under. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Las Vegas Aces. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.