On Monday 28 September 2026, Parma play Torino in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Parma +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -179 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Parma vs Torino: Parma +0.5 Goal Handicap (-179)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Parma hosts Torino, the backdrop of their recent form presents an intriguing scenario for bettors. While both teams have struggled to find consistency, Parma's home advantage offers a glimmer of hope. In their last five outings at home, they've managed to score an average of 1.2 goals, while holding their opponents to a similar tally. This parity suggests a potential for a narrow victory, especially considering Torino's away form has been lackluster, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per match. Moreover, Parma’s higher pressing game has led to a respectable average of 10.4 shots per game at home, hinting at opportunities to break through Torino's defense. Given that recent xG data shows both teams failing to generate significant scoring chances, a close contest is on the cards. Betting on Parma at -0.5 appears to be a savvy move, banking on their resilience to edge out a win in a tightly fought match.

Parma vs Torino: Parma Draw No Bet (+110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Parma prepares to host Torino, this matchup offers a tantalizing opportunity for those considering the Draw No Bet option on the home side. Despite a recent patchy form, Parma has shown resilience, especially at home, where they've averaged 1.2 goals scored per game. Their xG numbers may not jump off the page, but their ability to create chances—averaging over 10 shots per home match—suggests they’re knocking on the door. Torino, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, mustering only a goal per game while conceding 1.6. With both teams locked in a series of mixed results against each other, Parma’s home advantage could tilt the scales. Given their slightly better home record and the overall context, backing Parma in the Draw No Bet market feels like a savvy play in what could be a tightly contested affair.

That is how our model reads Parma v Torino. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article