On Monday 28 September 2026, Genoa play Fiorentina in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Genoa Draw No Bet, priced at +126 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Genoa vs Fiorentina: Genoa Draw No Bet (+126)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Genoa prepares to host Fiorentina, the recent trends reveal a clash of contrasting momentum. While Genoa has struggled at home, recording just one draw in their last five matches, they face a Fiorentina side that isn't without its own inconsistencies. The visitors have managed a solitary win in their last five outings, showcasing a tendency to concede more than they score. What’s particularly intriguing is Genoa's xG numbers; despite their lack of goals, they’ve been creating a fair number of chances, averaging 11.8 shots in their last five home games. If they can convert just a fraction of those into goals, the tide could turn. With Fiorentina averaging 1.4 goals away but leaking 2.2, there’s a real opportunity for Genoa to snag a win, making a Draw No Bet on them a compelling option this Saturday.

Genoa vs Fiorentina: Both Teams To Score: No (+102)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Genoa prepares to host Fiorentina, the betting landscape tilts towards a low-scoring affair, particularly in the "Both Teams to Score" market. Genoa’s recent form is concerning; they've netted a mere 0.6 goals per game at home over their last five matches, while conceding 2.2 on average. Their xG figures offer little hope, as they’ve been blanked in that department, reflected by an abysmal 0 in expected goals. Fiorentina, though slightly more productive with 1.4 goals away, has also faced struggles, yielding 2.2 goals per game themselves. The historical context doesn't favor Genoa either, as they haven’t managed to beat Fiorentina in their last five encounters. With both teams grappling for form and defensive solidity, betting on “No” for both to score seems like the smart call in a match likely dominated by tactical caution rather than open attacking play.

That is how our model reads Genoa v Fiorentina. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article