On Saturday 24 October 2026, Noah Gugnon takes on Kody Steele in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Kody Steele -3.5 on the Line, priced at -120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Kody Steele -3.5 on the Line (-120)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Noah Gugnon and Kody Steele are both tough fighters, but Kody's style gives him a solid chance to control the fight. Kody needs to push the action and keep Noah on the defensive to win, and that's likely to happen given how closely matched they are. Betting on Kody Steele to win by at least four points feels like a good move here. The ratings show this matchup is pretty even, so Kody winning close to that margin makes sense. Just keep in mind that both fighters have shown they can withstand pressure, so it could be a tough battle. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Over 2.5 Total Rounds (+147)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Noah Gugnon and Kody Steele are both tough fighters, and lately, they've shown they can take a lot of punishment. This fight looks likely to go the distance, so betting on over 2.5 rounds feels like a solid choice. Both fighters have a mix of skills, but they each need to put their game plan into action to outlast the other. While our numbers suggest they could finish each other off early, the fight being so close means it could go either way. Gugnon and Steele's styles might lead to a battle that lasts longer than expected. Just remember, the biggest risk is that one fighter could catch the other off guard and end things quickly. It was priced at +147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.70 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kody Steele to Win (-149)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Noah Gugnon and Kody Steele both bring different styles to the cage. Gugnon is known for his striking, while Steele is a strong wrestler who can control the fight on the ground. This could be a tough matchup for Gugnon, as Steele's wrestling might neutralize his striking and allow him to score points. Betting on Kody Steele to win seems solid. Our numbers show he has a good chance to take this fight, especially given his wrestling skills. The biggest risk here is that both fighters are quite close in skill, so it could go either way. Still, Steele's ability to grapple gives him an advantage that should help him secure the win. It was priced at -149 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Noah Gugnon: last five W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 84 days since the last fight
  • Kody Steele: last five W-L-W, won the last fight, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 175 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Noah Gugnon v Kody Steele. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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