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Model picks & player props
Atlanta Braves
VS
San Diego Padres

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 23, 3:23PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 12:40AM
20
Game markets graded
45
Props graded
83.3%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 12.5 Total Runs +880

The model graded 65 markets for Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $980 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 83.3% across 24 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 25 Jun 2026, 12:40AM at Petco Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win83.1%
The price says10.2%
Best price+880
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 12.5 High83% chance +880
Total Runs High80% chance
Total Runs High86% chance
Total Runs High77% chance
Total Runs High88% chance
Total Runs High90% chance
Total Runs High92% chance
Total Runs High95% chance
Spread Lean43% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 4 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Hits × 6 props Highup to 93%
Batter - Singles × 4 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Walks × 6 props Highup to 100%
Batter - Total Bases × 3 props Highup to 88%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 877 of 1,754 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 22
Under 5.5
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
11.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Atlanta Braves

  • Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
  • Robert Suarez RPOut
  • Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
  • Spencer Strider SPOut
  • Joe Jimenez RPOut
  • Joey Wentz RPOut

Probable pitcher

Martin Perez SP

San Diego Padres

  • Casey Mize SPDay-to-day
  • Nick Pivetta SPOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Samad Taylor LFOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Casey Mize SP
Availability updated Aug 23, 2:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Sung-Mun Song Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Fernando Tatis Jr. Batter - Hits
Ozzie Albies ATL Batter - Hits
Michael Harris II ATL Batter - Singles
Matt Olson Batter - Walks

+ 45 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Atlanta Braves L52-3Free board15-6

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Atlanta Braves L52-3

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Atlanta BravesNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Atlanta Braves L52-3

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 65 betting markets for Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 45 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
45
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 65 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 3 of their last 5 games; Atlanta Braves have won 1 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5MINHome
W6–2MINHome
L2–4NYMAway
W5–2NYMAway
L1–2NYMAway
Atlanta Braves — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4MILAway
L1–2MILAway
W2–0CHWAway
L4–6MINAway
L1–4MINAway

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: San Diego Padres won 4, Atlanta Braves won 3.

DateSan Diego PadresAtlanta BravesWinner
Jul 2356Atlanta Braves
Jul 2267Atlanta Braves
Jul 2183San Diego Padres
Jul 2023Atlanta Braves
Jun 2552San Diego Padres
Jun 2476San Diego Padres
Jun 2310San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Pivetta SPOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Samad Taylor LFOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Atlanta Braves
PlayerStatus
Reynaldo Lopez RPOUT
Robert Suarez RPOUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOUT
Spencer Strider SPOUT
Joe Jimenez RPOUT
Joey Wentz RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Winning baseball bets for San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Xander Bogaerts. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves stats and odds.

Xander Bogaerts (BOS) Under 1.5 Runs Scored (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
24
Total Picks
83.3%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 13.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +1 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 14 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 16 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 16.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 15.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 14.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres -1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 17 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres -1 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Moneyline San Diego Padres ✓ HIT
24 Jun 26 Spread Atlanta Braves -1 ✗ MISS
24 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 3 ✓ HIT
24 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres -2 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Braves vs Padres, or as Padres vs Braves. The most recent game between them was Thursday 25 June 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 45 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 83.3% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 7 meetings
San Diego Padres 4–3 across the last 7 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Jul 2026San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves6–5Atlanta Braves
22 Jul 2026San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves7–6Atlanta Braves
21 Jul 2026San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves3–8San Diego Padres
20 Jul 2026San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves3–2Atlanta Braves
25 Jun 2026Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres5–2San Diego Padres
24 Jun 2026Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres7–6San Diego Padres
23 Jun 2026Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres1–0San Diego Padres
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