On Friday 2 October 2026, Las Vegas Aces play Indiana Fever in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Las Vegas Aces to Win, priced at -169 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Las Vegas Aces to Win (-169)
Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing
The Las Vegas Aces are playing great basketball right now, having won six straight games. They have a strong scoring average of 91.6 points per game this season, which shows they can really put up numbers. They've also won eight of their last ten, so they're on a roll at home in the Michelob Ultra Arena. The Indiana Fever have been decent too, winning five of their last ten games, but they are not as consistent. Their scoring has been high at 98.0 points per game in their last 20 games, but they might struggle against the Aces' strong defense. The biggest risk here is how close the teams are in overall performance, but the Aces seem to have the better form right now. It was priced at -169 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 186 Total Points (-189)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The Las Vegas Aces have been on fire, winning six games in a row and averaging 91.6 points per game this season. Meanwhile, the Indiana Fever have scored a solid 98.0 points per game in their last 20 games, but they've only won 5 of their last 10. Given the Aces' strong defense and the combined total our numbers suggest is around 167.6, betting on the total points to go under 186 seems smart. The biggest risk is that both teams have been scoring well lately, making it possible for the points to add up quickly. It was priced at -189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.30 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Chelsea Gray Under 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-109)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Chelsea Gray has been playing well, helping her team, the Las Vegas Aces, win six games in a row. However, she averages just under 10 combined rebounds and assists at night games. With the Aces scoring a lot, she might not need to do as much on the boards or with passing since they often have the game well in hand. The Indiana Fever have been decent lately, but they have also had their struggles. Chelsea's numbers might be close to 9.5, but the matchup is tricky, and the Fever can surprise. This bet is rated close to a coin flip, so it's a bit risky, especially since both teams are competitive. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Aliyah Boston Under 18.5 Points and Assists (-108)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Aliyah Boston has been pretty consistent lately, but she faces a tough challenge against the Las Vegas Aces. They've been on fire, winning their last six games and scoring an impressive 91.6 points per game. This high-energy game could make it hard for Boston to rack up points and assists, especially since the Aces' defense is strong. While Boston averages around 14.8 points and 2.7 assists at night, she might find it tricky to hit the over of 18.5 in this matchup. The Aces will put pressure on her, and with the way they've been playing, there's a real chance she could fall short. So, it's worth considering the under on her points and assists in this game. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Caitlin Clark has been playing really well, but facing the Las Vegas Aces is tough. The Aces have won six games in a row and have a strong defense. They're letting up less than 92 points on average, which means scoring can be hard against them. With the Aces on a winning streak and Clark needing to find ways to score, she might have a tougher night. Clark has been averaging a solid number of points, but the Aces are known for shutting down big scorers. Indiana Fever has only won five of their last ten games, and this matchup could make it tricky for her to hit over 22.5 points. So, while she's talented, the challenge she faces tonight is real. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Las Vegas Aces v Indiana Fever. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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