On Tuesday 29 September 2026, Indiana Fever play Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Indiana Fever +1.5 on the Line, priced at -120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Indiana Fever +1.5 on the Line (-120)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
The Indiana Fever have been playing well lately, winning 4 of their last 6 games and scoring a strong 96 points on average. They'll face the Las Vegas Aces, who are also on a hot streak, winning their last 6 games and putting up 91 points per game. This matchup looks very close, almost like a coin flip. The Fever have home advantage, and our numbers suggest they could cover the +1.5 points spread. However, the Aces are a tough opponent, and that makes this a risky pick. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 193.5 Total Points (-278)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The odds for the total points are set at under 193.5, and our numbers believe that's a solid pick. Indiana Fever has scored an impressive 96 points a game lately, but they've also been tight on defense, while Las Vegas Aces have been scoring 91.3 points per game but can struggle against strong defenses. With both teams playing tough lately, a combined score around 167.5 makes sense. The biggest risk is that both teams are in good scoring form, but we still like the under here. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Caitlin Clark has been a standout for the Indiana Fever, but the Las Vegas Aces have been tough on defense lately. They've won six games in a row and are known for putting pressure on opposing players. With Clark scoring well, she might face extra attention from the Aces, which could limit her chances to rack up points. We're picking under 22.5 points for her because our numbers show there's a good chance she won't hit that mark given this matchup. While Clark has been scoring high, facing a defense like the Aces can make it hard for her to keep that up. The most concrete risk is how strong the Aces are on defense, especially with their recent winning streak. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jackie Young Under 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The odds for Jackie Young to score under 32.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists look promising. While she's been solid this season, the Indiana Fever are on a roll, winning four out of their last six games and scoring an impressive 96 points per game. This could make it harder for Young to rack up big numbers, especially since the Fever are playing at home. However, the Las Vegas Aces are no slouches, winning six games in a row. With both teams in strong form, it might be a tight matchup. If Young has an off night or the Fever find a way to limit her contributions, this bet could come through. The most concrete risk is that Young has been consistently scoring well, so there's a chance she could surprise us. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kelsey Mitchell Under 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-108)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Kelsey Mitchell has been on fire, averaging around 29 points and assists per game at night. However, the Las Vegas Aces are tough opponents, winning their last six games and playing solid defense. This makes it a bit tricky for Mitchell to hit that high mark against them. While Mitchell has been scoring well, the Aces might limit her chances. With her averaging around 29 combined points, rebounds, and assists, betting under 29.5 seems smart given the matchup. The Aces are known for their ability to clamp down on scoring. It could go either way, but with the Aces in such strong form, this feels like a reasonable bet. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Indiana Fever v Las Vegas Aces. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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