On Monday 28 September 2026, Fiorentina play Como in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Como +0 Goal Handicap, priced at -196 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Fiorentina vs Como: Como +0 Goal Handicap (-196)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Fiorentina hosts Como this Sunday, the form book leans heavily in favor of the visitors. Fiorentina’s recent struggles at home—managing just one win in their last five—paint a concerning picture. They’ve averaged a meager 0.6 goals per game at home while conceding 1.4, showcasing a clear defensive vulnerability. Conversely, Como arrives with confidence, having secured three wins in their last five outings, including a strong away record where they’ve averaged 2.2 goals per game. Their offensive output, combined with a solid xG of 0, suggests they’re creating quality chances. The last encounters also favor Como, who have gone unbeaten in their last five against Fiorentina. Given these trends, betting on Como with a handicap of 0 feels like a smart move, especially with their current form and Fiorentina's home troubles. Expect Como to at least come away with a point.

Fiorentina vs Como: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-588)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Fiorentina gears up to face Como, the expectation for a low-scoring affair feels right on the money. Fiorentina's recent form at home has been dismal, averaging just 0.6 goals per game while conceding 1.4. Their inability to create clear chances is evident from their xG stats, which show a strikingly low output of 0. With only a single win in their last five matches, the pressure is palpable. Como, on the other hand, has found some rhythm with 2.2 goals away, but even they struggle to break down defenses effectively. Their matchups against Fiorentina in recent years have also trended towards tight contests, with the past five meetings highlighting a similar pattern. Considering both teams' recent scoring woes and the historical context, betting on under 4.5 total goals seems like a savvy move to capitalize on.

That is how our model reads Fiorentina v Como. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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