Jarrett Stidham (DEN) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the data provided, a bet on Jarrett Stidham to rush for under 15.5 yards seems statistically defensible. Although Stidham has hit the over on this prop in 5 out of his last 8 games overall, his performance at home has been less impressive, hitting the over in only 2 out of 5 games. This suggests that he tends to rush for fewer yards when playing at home. Additionally, Stidham is currently on a zero-game hit streak both overall and at home, implying a recent lack of success in exceeding this rushing total. While the model edge is relatively small at around 5.1%, the combination of these factors supports the conclusion that a bet on Stidham to stay under 15.5 rushing yards is a reasonable proposition.

Jarrett Stidham (DEN) Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting under 14.5 on Jarrett Stidham's rushing yards seems to be a favorable position based on recent data. Stidham's overall hit rate for the under in his last 5, 10, and 20 games is high, coming in at 4/5, 5/8, and 5/8 respectively. These hit rates suggest that in most recent games, Stidham has struggled to surpass 14.5 rushing yards, indicating a consistent pattern of underperformance in this area. While his home game hit rates are slightly lower, this game against Denver Broncos is not a home game, making these stats less impactful. It's worth noting that his current hit streak for both overall and home games is at 0, suggesting he is not currently on a run of high rushing yard games. Therefore, the statistical data supports betting under 14.5 for Jarrett Stidham's rushing yards.

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