On Friday 23 October 2026, Como play Sassuolo in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 4.5 Total Goals, priced at -333 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Como prepares to host Sassuolo, it’s worth noting that both sides appear to be trending towards a low-scoring affair. Como's recent home form shows they’ve averaged just 1.2 goals while conceding around 1, a trend echoed by Sassuolo, who struggle on the road with their away average also sitting at 1.2 goals. The Expected Goals (xG) stats reinforce this narrative, as both teams have consistently failed to generate significant attacking threats, reflected in their xG numbers hovering around zero in recent outings. This match-up also features two defenses that are effectively nullifying opposition attacks, with Como conceding just one goal per game at home and Sassuolo giving up similar figures on the road. Given these trends, betting on the total goals to stay under 4.5 feels like an astute move.
Como vs Sassuolo: Sassuolo +1.5 Goal Handicap (-149)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Como prepares to host Sassuolo, recent form suggests Sassuolo is primed for a solid performance. Despite a shaky away record, they’ve shown resilience in their last five outings with a scoring average of 1.8 goals. On the flip side, Como’s home stats indicate a more modest scoring rate of 1.2 goals per game, and they’ve conceded an alarming average of 2.2 goals in their away games lately. Sassuolo’s offensive game should be bolstered by their positive xG numbers, suggesting they’ve been creating chances, even if they haven’t fully capitalized on them yet. With Como struggling defensively and Sassuolo's recent head-to-head advantage, betting on Sassuolo to cover a -1.5 handicap looks promising. They’ve got the firepower to outpace Como, making this a compelling bet as they strive to turn their form around.
That is how our model reads Como v Sassuolo. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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