Andrey Pulyaev vs Damian Pinas Prediction & Picks: Analytics Breakdown

On Sunday 4 October 2026, Andrey Pulyaev takes on Damian Pinas in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Andrey Pulyaev to Win, priced at +383 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Andrey Pulyaev to Win (+383)

Andrey Pulyaev is stepping into the octagon against Damian Pinas, and it looks like he has a solid chance to win this fight. Pulyaev's style is aggressive, and he'll need to push the pace to keep Pinas on the defensive. Even though Pulyaev is the underdog, our numbers show he has a real shot against Pinas, who has had some durability issues in the past. The biggest risk here is that both fighters have similar durability, making this a close matchup. If Pinas can withstand Pulyaev's attacks, it could turn the fight in his favor. But with odds at +383, this is a great opportunity to back Pulyaev and see if he can pull off the upset. It was priced at +383 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $48.30 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Andrey Pulyaev: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 91 days since the last fight
• Damian Pinas: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 18% of career wins came by knockout, 77 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Andrey Pulyaev v Damian Pinas. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.