Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Picks

On Sunday 4 October 2026, Rafael Dos Anjos takes on Alexander Hernandez in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Alex Hernandez -5.5 on the Line, priced at -125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alex Hernandez -5.5 on the Line (-125)

Rafael Dos Anjos is a tough veteran who knows how to handle pressure, but he faces a tricky matchup against Alexander Hernandez. Hernandez has the speed and skill to keep Dos Anjos on the back foot, and he'll need to stay active and land his strikes effectively to win. Our numbers give Hernandez a good chance to cover the spread of -5.5, suggesting he could find ways to dominate this fight. The main risk here is that Dos Anjos' experience could help him withstand Hernandez's attacks, making it close. However, Hernandez's recent form seems stronger, and he might just have what it takes to control the fight and win decisively. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Alden Coria: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 77 days since the last fight
• Imanol Rodriguez: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 29% of career wins came by knockout, 217 days since the last fight
• Andrey Pulyaev: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 98 days since the last fight
• Damian Pinas: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 18% of career wins came by knockout, 84 days since the last fight
• Anthony Romero: last five W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 2229 days since the last fight
• Marcus McGhee: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 15% of career wins came by knockout, 119 days since the last fight
• Court McGee: last five L-W-L-L-L, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 476 days since the last fight
• Eric Nolan: last five L-L, dropped the last 2, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 98 days since the last fight
• Deiveson Figueiredo: last five L-L-W-L-L, dropped the last 2, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 126 days since the last fight
• Payton Talbott: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 17% of career wins came by knockout, 301 days since the last fight
• King Green: last five W-W-W-W-L, on a 4-fight win streak, 9% of career wins came by knockout, 84 days since the last fight
• Esteban Ribovics: last five W-L-W-L-W, won the last fight, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 49 days since the last fight
• Marvin Vettori: last five L-L-L-L-W, dropped the last 4, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 301 days since the last fight
• Ismail Naurdiev: last five W-L-W-L-W, won the last fight, 3% of career wins came by knockout, 315 days since the last fight
• Natalia Silva: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 8-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 252 days since the last fight
• Wang Cong: last five W-W-W-W-L, on a 4-fight win streak, 9% of career wins came by knockout, 84 days since the last fight
• Khaos Williams: last five W-L-L-W-W, won the last fight, 24% of career wins came by knockout, 140 days since the last fight
• Roman Kopylov: last five W-L-L-W-W, won the last fight, 25% of career wins came by knockout, 147 days since the last fight
• Ateba Gautier: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 6-fight win streak, 42% of career wins came by knockout, 147 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Rafael Dos Anjos v Alexander Hernandez. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.