On Sunday 4 October 2026, Rafael Dos Anjos takes on Alexander Hernandez in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Alex Hernandez to Win, priced at -244 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alex Hernandez to Win (-244)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Rafael Dos Anjos is known for his grappling and experience, which can be a challenge for any fighter. However, Alex Hernandez has a strong striking style and is younger, which often helps fighters perform better. His chances look good according to our numbers, especially since he has the speed advantage that could keep him ahead in the fight. The biggest risk comes from Dos Anjos' ability to take the fight to the ground, where he can use his wrestling skills. Still, Hernandez's striking power could be the key to earning a win. With a strong chance to come out on top, betting on Alex Hernandez to win the fight seems like a solid pick. It was priced at -244 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Rafael Dos Anjos: last five L-L-L-W-L, dropped the last 3, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 702 days since the last fight
  • Alexander Hernandez: last five L-W-W-W-W, lost the last fight, 19% of career wins came by knockout, 156 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Rafael Dos Anjos v Alexander Hernandez. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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