On Wednesday 9 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Goals, priced at -233 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alavés vs Valencia: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-233)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

When Alavés hosts Valencia, the scene is set for a match that should comfortably surpass 1.5 goals. Valencia’s recent form hints at a struggle, with only one win in their last five outings. They’ve managed a mere 0.8 goals per game while conceding a troubling 2.0. However, their attacking stats show they’re not entirely toothless, averaging over 12 shots per match. On the flip side, Alavés tends to capitalize on defensive lapses, especially at home. They’ve been solid offensively, and with Valencia's shaky away record, this matchup could see a few goals fly in. The implied probability of hitting over 1.5 goals sits at a healthy 65.8%. With both teams having a penchant for defensive errors, expect a lively contest that pushes the total beyond the line. In this game, goals seem not just possible, but likely.

Alavés vs Valencia: Alavés +0 Goal Handicap (-189)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, recent performances suggest a favorable outcome for the home side. Valencia’s struggles are evident; they’ve managed just one win in their last five away matches, with a paltry average of 0.8 goals scored and a concerning xG of 0. Their attacking woes are compounded by a defense that concedes an average of 2 goals per game. In contrast, Alavés has shown resilience at home, and with the stakes high, they’ll aim to capitalize on Valencia's vulnerabilities. The defensive solidity of Alavés combined with Valencia’s inability to convert chances makes them a prime candidate for a handicap bet. The statistics favor Alavés to secure at least a draw, if not a win, making the 'Alavés 0' line a smart move. With the home crowd behind them, they’ll look to turn the tide in their favor.

That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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