On Wednesday 9 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Goals, priced at -233 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alavés vs Valencia: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-233)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Alavés hosts Valencia, the stage is set for a match that screams goals. Valencia’s recent form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five outings, scoring a mere 0.8 goals per game. However, they’ve been conceding around two per match, which hints at their defensive vulnerabilities. On the flip side, Alavés is always a threat at home, and a total of 1.5 goals is quite achievable. The last five encounters have seen Valencia’s opponents firing an average of 1.6 goals, suggesting they’re ripe for conceding. With Alavés eager to capitalize on Valencia's frailties, this clash has all the hallmarks of a high-scoring affair. Given the underlying xG data and both teams' recent scoring trends, betting on over 1.5 goals feels like a wise move here. Expect a lively contest that comfortably surpasses the line.

Alavés vs Valencia: Alavés +0 Goal Handicap (-189)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the signs are pointing strongly in favor of the home side. Valencia's recent away form is troubling; they’ve managed just one win in their last five, and their xG tells a stark story—an alarming zero in five matches, coupled with a meager goal tally of just 0.8 per game. In contrast, Alavés has shown resilience at home, with a solid defensive record that could stifle Valencia’s struggling attack. Moreover, Valencia's defensive frailties have allowed nearly two goals per game recently, making them vulnerable against an Alavés side that’s keen to capitalize on these gaps. With the home advantage and Valencia’s lack of scoring firepower, backing Alavés at 0 on the handicap seems like a savvy move. Expect them to seize this opportunity and potentially secure all three points.

That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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