On Sunday 13 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -5000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alavés vs Valencia: Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Valencia gears up to face Alavés, recent form paints a troubling picture for the visitors. They've struggled on the road, racking up a dismal 0-1-4 record in their last five away matches, scoring a mere 1.4 goals while conceding 1.6. The numbers tell a stark story; Valencia's recent xG sits at a disappointing 0, highlighting their difficulties in generating meaningful chances. However, Alavés isn’t the fortress it once was, and Valencia’s improved home performances suggest they can capitalize on Alavés’ vulnerabilities. The away side may have stumbled, but they have the talent to turn the tide. Given Alavés' recent defensive lapses, Valencia's chances of overcoming the 3.5 handicap look promising. Expect a spirited Valencia side to break their slump and deliver a decisive performance, making this an enticing bet for those looking to back the visitors.
Alavés vs Valencia: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Alavés prepares to face Valencia, the trend lines strongly suggest a low-scoring affair. Valencia's recent form is alarming, with just two goals from their last five matches, averaging a mere 0.2 xG per game. They've been struggling to create opportunities, and their last outing saw them fail to find the back of the net entirely. Conversely, Alavés has also been tight at the back, allowing a modest average of 2 goals against in their recent matches. With both teams struggling offensively, the likelihood of a goal fest feels improbably thin. Neither side is showing the creativity or finishing prowess needed to break through. Given Valencia’s away woes and Alavés’ sturdy defense, betting on under 5.5 total goals seems a savvy play. In a match where every point is crucial, expect a tactical battle rather than a goal bonanza.
Alavés vs Valencia: Over 5.5 Total Corners (-2000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Alavés takes on Valencia, the corners market looks incredibly intriguing. Valencia has struggled on the road lately, with a dismal record of 0-1-4 in their last five away games. Their attacking woes are evident; they've managed a paltry 0.2 goals per game in that stretch, leading to a significant uptick in corner opportunities for opponents. Alavés, on the other hand, is not shy about pushing forward, and given Valencia's defensive frailties, we can expect Alavés to exploit that. With Valencia averaging over 10 fouls per game and a tendency to concede corners in their desperate attempts to regain possession, it’s not hard to see why the line at 5.5 corners feels low. Expect the match to unfold with Alavés applying pressure, driving the corner count past that threshold comfortably. Betting on over 5.5 corners not only feels prudent, but almost inevitable in this matchup.
That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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