On Monday 14 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alavés vs Valencia: Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Valencia heads to Alavés on September 15, they’re hungry for redemption after a rough patch, including four losses in their last five outings. However, don’t let recent form fool you; their xG numbers tell a different story. Valencia's attacking prowess has been stifled, yet with an away goal average of 1.4, they’ve shown they can find the net, even if they’ve been shaky defensively, conceding 1.6 per game. Alavés, while playing at home, has struggled to put points on the board recently, failing to impress with just two total goals in their last five. With Valencia's tendency to dominate possession and create opportunities, expect them to capitalize on Alavés’ defensive frailties. The handicap of 3.5 seems generous; Valencia is primed to outclass Alavés and secure a strong win, making this bet a compelling choice for those looking to capitalize on this matchup.
Alavés vs Valencia: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As we look ahead to the clash between Alavés and Valencia, the trends suggest a low-scoring affair is on the cards. Valencia’s recent form has been alarming, with just 0.2 goals per game in their last five outings. They’ve struggled to find the back of the net, recording an xG of zero in that stretch. Meanwhile, Alavés, though they’ve had their moments, are not exactly firing on all cylinders either. What’s more intriguing is Valencia's away record, with only a single draw from their last five matches. They’ve averaged a mere 1.4 goals against during this period, while their defense has conceded 1.6. With both sides showing a penchant for defensive play and an inability to create clear-cut chances, betting on 'Under 5.5' total goals seems not just prudent, but almost inevitable given the current dynamics. Expect a tactical battle, rather than a goal fest.
Alavés vs Valencia: Over 5.5 Total Corners (-2000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the stage is set for a corner-heavy showdown. Valencia’s recent struggles, with only one draw in their last five away matches, suggest they’ll be pushing hard to regain form. With an average of just 0.2 goals scored in those games, they’ll likely rely on set pieces to create opportunities, leading to more corners. On the flip side, Alavés has shown a knack for generating corners at home. Given Valencia’s defensive frailties and their tendency to foul—averaging over 10 per game—expect plenty of stoppages. In fact, their last away outings have seen an uptick in corner counts, coinciding with their desperate need for results. Both teams’ recent play indicates a perfect storm for corners, making the bet on over 5.5 an enticing option as both sides look to exploit every chance.
That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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