On Monday 14 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alavés vs Valencia: Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Valencia travels to face Alavés, the stakes are high for the visitors who are desperately seeking to turn their fortunes around after a dismal run. Their last five outings have seen them stumble to just one draw and four defeats, but there’s a glimmer of hope—these matches have produced a staggering average of 2 goals conceded per game. With an xG of zero in those matches, it’s clear they need to tighten up defensively. However, Alavés isn’t exactly a fortress, allowing 1.6 goals on average in their recent games. Valencia’s attacking woes could be alleviated against a side that has also struggled to keep the opposition at bay. Betting on Valencia with a 3.5 handicap seems wise; their current plight might just spark a much-needed response against a vulnerable Alavés defense, making this a ripe opportunity for a turnaround.
Alavés vs Valencia: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the recent form of both teams paints a picture of a tightly contested match, likely devoid of goals. Valencia's away record has been dismal, with no wins in their last five outings and an astonishing scoring average of just 0.2 goals per game. Their xG metrics tell a similar story—struggling to generate real chances, registering an xG of 0 across those matches. Alavés, while not prolific either, has shown defensive resilience. With Valencia's attack stuttering, expect a low-scoring affair. The last five games for both sides have seen average goals per match well below the 5.5 mark. Given the circumstances, betting on the total goals to remain under 5.5 seems not only wise but almost a certainty, as both teams appear destined for a battle of attrition rather than an offensive showcase.
Alavés vs Valencia: Over 5.5 Total Corners (-2000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the corners market is ripe for exploitation, particularly on the 'Over 5.5' line. Valencia has struggled mightily on their travels, managing a dismal record with just one draw in their last five away outings. In those matches, they've registered a mere 1.6 corners per game while conceding an average of 10.4 shots. Alavés, on the other hand, thrives at home, boasting a more dynamic attacking style. With their propensity to push forward, we can expect plenty of action in the final third. Recent trends suggest that when these two teams collide, corner counts tend to spike, especially with Valencia's lack of offensive output leading to more defensive work. Given their away struggles and the overall form, betting on 'Over 5.5' corners feels like a savvy play that capitalizes on these attacking dynamics and defensive frailties.
That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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