On Sunday 13 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -5000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alavés vs Valencia: Valencia +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Valencia heads to Alavés, there's a compelling case for taking Valencia with a 3.5 handicap. Despite a rough patch recently, Valencia's ability to create opportunities is evident, boasting an average of 10.4 shots in their last five away games. However, their struggle to convert chances into goals—resulting in a mere 0.2 goals per game—hints at a team in need of a breakthrough. On the other hand, Alavés has shown vulnerability at home, allowing an average of 1.6 goals against. With Valencia's xG struggling at zero, this match could be a turning point, especially against a side that has conceded consistently. The trend favors Valencia regaining form, and with their attacking potential, it feels like a prime opportunity to back them to cover that 3.5 handicap. Expect a spirited performance that could see Valencia finally find the back of the net multiple times.
Alavés vs Valencia: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the stage is set for a clash that’s likely to see more caution than fireworks. Valencia's recent form on the road tells a compelling story: they've struggled dramatically, notching just 0.2 goals per game in their last five outings and failing to find the net in four of them. Moreover, their expected goals (xG) have been alarmingly low, with a total of zero from those matches. Alavés, while not a defensive fortress, will likely capitalize on Valencia's lack of attacking potency. With both teams trending toward low-scoring affairs, it feels almost inevitable that this match will not eclipse the 5.5 goals mark. Given Valencia's inability to generate offense and the historical tendency for these matchups to remain tight, betting on the under here seems not just prudent, but almost a foregone conclusion.
Alavés vs Valencia: Alavés +1.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the current form suggests a compelling case for backing Alavés with a -1.5 handicap. Valencia's recent struggles are hard to ignore; they’ve managed just one draw in their last five outings, scoring a mere 0.2 goals per game while conceding 2. This dismal form is reflected in their xG numbers, where they’ve registered a total of zero expected goals in those matches. In contrast, Alavés has been steady at home, and their attacking prowess could exploit Valencia's frailties. With Valencia averaging only 1.4 goals against away, it’s clear they’re vulnerable. Given Alavés' home advantage and Valencia’s dreadful away record of 0-1-4, it’s reasonable to expect Alavés to cover that -1.5 line comfortably. The current odds reflect a strong belief in this outcome, and rightly so, considering the stark contrast in both teams’ form.
That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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