On Thursday 10 September 2026, Alavés play Valencia in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Goals, priced at -238 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alavés vs Valencia: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-238)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Alavés prepares to host Valencia, the scene is set for a match that seems ripe for goals. Valencia’s recent form has been troubling, with only one win in their last five outings, and they’ve struggled to find the back of the net, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. However, their defensive frailties have been exposed too, conceding an average of 2 goals in that same stretch. Alavés, on the other hand, has shown a little more attacking intent. With their home advantage, they're likely to capitalize on Valencia's shaky defense. Considering the overall trends and both teams' xG figures, which suggest a tendency for higher-scoring matches, the over 1.5 total goals looks appealing. Given the current form, it’s hard to envision a scenario where this game doesn't see at least a couple of goals. Expect a lively encounter that could easily surpass the line.

Alavés vs Valencia: Alavés +0 Goal Handicap (-213)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Alavés prepare to host Valencia, the trends heavily favor the home side. Valencia's recent away form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five matches on the road, and they’ve averaged a mere 0.8 goals per game during this stretch. Not only have they struggled to find the back of the net, but their xG numbers indicate an alarming lack of creativity, sitting at zero. On the flip side, Alavés have shown resilience, especially at home, where they’ll be looking to capitalize on Valencia's defensive frailties. With their opponents conceding an average of two goals per match lately, it’s hard to see Valencia keeping a clean sheet here. Alavés' solid form and Valencia's offensive woes strongly suggest that backing Alavés with a handicap of 0 is well worth it. Expect the home side to come out on top in what could be a tight but favorable encounter.

That is how our model reads Alavés v Valencia. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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