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Model v4.0 Updated Daily

Today's UFC Picks — Edge, Probability & Best Odds

Free UFC picks across moneyline, method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Every selection shows the model's probability, the market edge, and readable reasoning — so you bet on numbers, not noise.

See verified results & units → Jump to today's picks Top edges only

Today's UFC picks

Tap a game to expand markets & reasoning
UFC • vs. 2026-08-09 00:00 •
Alexia Thainara Away
vs.
Home Amanda Lemos
Show Picks
Alexia Thainara at Amanda Lemos: Under totals 2.5
Probability 74.9%
Edge 7.2%
Best Odds 165

Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara: Under 2.5 total rounds (+165)

Odds available at betonlineag at time of publishing

Amanda Lemos fights Alexia Thainara on the UFC card on Sunday 9 August 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 2.5 rounds. It was priced at +165 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. The bet we are looking at is Under 2.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara h2h
Probability
Edge 2.3%
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UFC • vs. 2026-08-09 00:00 •
Guilherme Pat Away
vs.
Home Steven Asplund
Show Picks
Guilherme Pat at Steven Asplund: Under totals 1.5
Probability 70.9%
Edge 6.2%
Best Odds 174

Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat: Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+174)

Odds available at betonlineag at time of publishing

In the UFC fight between Steven Asplund and Guilherme Pat, I'm picking the total rounds to go under 1.5. Both fighters have aggressive styles, with a focus on finishing their opponents quickly. Asplund is known for his striking, while Pat has a strong grappling game, which could lead to a quick end. Our numbers show there's a good chance this fight won't last long, and it's possible we could see a finish in the first round. Remember, fights can be unpredictable, but I think this one could be over sooner rather than later.

Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat h2h
Probability
Edge 1.4%
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UFC • vs. 2026-08-09 00:00 •
Quillan Salkilld Away
vs.
Home Mateusz Gamrot
Show Picks
Quillan Salkilld at Mateusz Gamrot: Under totals 3.5
Probability 74.6%
Edge 5.4%
Best Odds 105

Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld: Under 3.5 total rounds (+105)

Odds available at betonlineag at time of publishing

Mateusz Gamrot fights Quillan Salkilld on the UFC card on Sunday 9 August 2026. This one lands if the fight is finished inside 3.5 rounds. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. The bet we are looking at is Under 3.5 total rounds. That is a total rounds bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld h2h
Probability
Edge 3.6%
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UFC • vs. 2026-08-09 00:00 •
Diyar Nurgozhay Away
vs.
Home Bruno Lopes
Show Picks
Diyar Nurgozhay at Bruno Lopes: Diyar Nurgozhay Moneyline
Probability 64.2%
Edge 5.1%
Best Odds -145

Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay: Diyar Nurgozhay to win the fight (-145)

Odds available at betmgm at time of publishing

Bruno Lopes fights Diyar Nurgozhay on the UFC card on Sunday 9 August 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Diyar Nurgozhay gets the win. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. The bet we are looking at is Diyar Nurgozhay to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

UFC • vs. 2026-08-09 00:00 •
Ravena Oliveira Away
vs.
Home Juliana Miller
Show Picks
Ravena Oliveira at Juliana Miller: Ravena Oliveira Moneyline
Probability 32.0%
Edge 0.8%
Best Odds 220

Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira: Ravena Oliveira to win the fight (+220)

Odds available at betmgm at time of publishing

Juliana Miller fights Ravena Oliveira on the UFC card on Sunday 9 August 2026. This is a straight fight-winner bet, so it lands if Ravena Oliveira gets the win. It was priced at +220 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $32 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. The bet we are looking at is Ravena Oliveira to win the fight. That is a fight winner bet. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Quick answer

What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline (winner), method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming UFC game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, use Best Bets. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

UFC pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which fighter wins the bout outright, by any method. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Method of Victory How a fighter wins — KO/TKO, Submission or Decision. Clear stylistic mismatches where the finish is predictable.
Total Rounds Over or under a set number of rounds. Finishing rates, durability, cardio and pace trends.
Fight Props Go the distance, round betting and method combinations. Exploit style edges, finishing tendencies or recent form streaks.

How to read UFC picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated UFC picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, use UFC Best Bets. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major UFC market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

UFC Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are UFC picks?

UFC picks are model-generated predictions for UFC betting markets including moneyline, method of victory, total rounds and fight props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between UFC picks and UFC best bets?

UFC Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. UFC Best Bets is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for that day. If you want everything, use Picks. If you want the model's top selections only, use Best Bets.

What types of UFC picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, Submission or Decision), total rounds (over/under a set number of rounds), and fight props (go the distance, round betting and method combinations). Fight markets and prop markets are displayed together within each bout, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are UFC picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What does edge mean on this page?

Edge is the difference between the model's estimated probability and the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's posted odds. A pick with a model probability of 65% against odds implying 55% has a +10% edge — meaning the model estimates the true likelihood is 10 percentage points higher than the market is pricing. Consistently finding positive-edge selections is the foundation of long-run profitable betting strategy.

Can I use UFC picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the UFC Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee UFC picks will win?

No. UFC picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Today's selected board

See every UFC play that cleared the model's filter today

See today's UFC picks

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

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