Today's Top MLB Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 09/18

Tarik Skubal's recent pitching performance supports the bet for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market. His last five overall games show an average of 5.4 hits allowed, well over the line of 3.5. This trend continues even when he's playing at home, with an average of 4.2 hits allowed. His performance against the Cleveland Guardians also aligns with this trend, as he's averaged 5.5 hits allowed in the last five games versus this team. Additionally, Skubal is currently on a streak of allowing hits, with five consecutive games overall and three at home. This consistent pattern of allowing more than 3.5 hits makes the bet a statistically sound choice.

Max Fried (NYY) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-141)

The bet on Max Fried for Over 5.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is based on his consistent performance, particularly when playing away games. His last five overall and away games show an average of 6 and 6.2 strikeouts respectively, both surpassing the line of 5.5. Even though his performance against the Orioles averages at 5 strikeouts, his overall and away statistics suggest he has the capability to exceed this. Moreover, Fried's innings pitched (IP) data supports this, with his last five overall and away games averaging at 6 and 6.3 innings respectively. More innings generally provide more opportunities for strikeouts. Despite the current hit streak being zero, Fried's strong averages indicate his ability to achieve over 5.5 strikeouts.

Miguel Rojas (LAD) Under 1.5 Singles (-323)

The bet on Miguel Rojas for Under 1.5 in the Batter Singles market is a solid choice, mainly due to his recent performance data. Rojas' average for the last five games overall and against the opponent is below the line of 1.5, standing at 0.6 and 0.8 respectively. Even when playing at home, his average is only 0.4, far below the bet line. Despite his current hit streaks, both overall and at home, these numbers indicate that Rojas is not frequently hitting more than one single per game. Therefore, the under bet is statistically more likely to be successful, as Rojas would need to significantly outperform his recent averages to hit over 1.5 singles in the upcoming game against the Phillies.

Taylor Ward (LAA) Over 0.5 Hits (-164)

Taylor Ward's betting performance data indicates a strong rationale for an Over 0.5 bet in the Batter Hits market. His last five away games demonstrate a promising average of 1.2 hits per game, which is significantly above the betting line. This is backed by his current away hit streak of 5 games, showing a consistent performance when playing away. Furthermore, his overall plate appearances average (4) and away plate appearances average (4.4) suggest he is given ample opportunities to hit. Despite a lower average against the Brewers (0.2), the current form, particularly his away performance, outweighs this statistic. Hence, the data strongly suggests that Ward is likely to achieve over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Brewers.