Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score a touchdown anytime during the Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams game is not particularly strong based on his recent performance and historical trends. Smith-Njigba's overall hit rate is low at 9/48 and his recent performance has shown a decline, with a hit rate of 0/10 in the last 10 games. This trend continues at home, with a hit rate of 2/10 in the last 10 home games. However, there is a slight positive trend when playing against the Rams, especially at home. His hit rate against the Rams at home is 1/2. This means that 50% of the time when playing against the Rams at home, Smith-Njigba has scored a touchdown. Despite this, his overall current hit streak is zero, suggesting he might not be at his scoring best lately. In conclusion, while there is some statistical evidence supporting the bet, it’s

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score a touchdown at any time during the Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams game may seem risky given his recent performance. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5 and 10 games is 0, indicating a current lack of scoring form. However, his specific performance against the Rams and especially at home against the Rams is more promising. His hit rate against the Rams in the last 3, 5 and 10 games is 1/3, 1/4 and 1/4 respectively. Moreover, at home against the Rams, his hit rate is even better at 1/2 in the last 3, 5 and 10 games. Given this pattern, Smith-Njigba appears to perform better against the Rams, particularly when playing at home. This, combined with the model edge of 0.0257905925159307, suggests a small but potentially profitable opportunity.

Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Kenneth Walker III has shown a consistent trend of lower reception yards over his last five games, making the under bet a statistically sound choice. The model edge, while small, also favors the under outcome with a value of 0.0195885901740858, indicating a slight statistical advantage towards this bet. Historically, the Seahawks have a strong defense against running backs in the passing game, further reducing Walker III's chances of exceeding 13.5 reception yards. Additionally, the Rams' offensive strategy tends to rely more on their wide receivers and tight ends for passing plays, which may limit Walker's involvement in the passing game. Taking these factors into consideration, the under 13.5 bet for Kenneth Walker III's reception yards appears to be the more probable outcome.

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