Roque Conceição vs Alexander Chavez Prediction & Picks

On Wednesday 7 October 2026, Roque Conceição takes on Alexander Chavez in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Alexander Chavez to Win, priced at -102 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alexander Chavez to Win (-102)

Alexander Chavez is looking strong lately, and he has the skills to keep that going. He needs to use his striking and stay on his feet to outscore Roque Conceicao. Both fighters are evenly matched, making this a tough fight to call, but Chavez seems to have the slight upper hand. The risk here is that Conceicao could surprise with his grappling if the fight goes to the ground. However, Chavez has been working hard and knows how to keep the fight where he can shine. With the odds nearly even, it feels like a good chance for Chavez to take the win here. It was priced at -102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Roque Conceição: last five L, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 364 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Roque Conceição v Alexander Chavez. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.