On Saturday 24 October 2026, Aaron Pico takes on Losene Keita in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Aaron Pico -3.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Aaron Pico -3.5 on the Line (+110)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The odds for Aaron Pico at +110 with a point spread of -3.5 offer solid value. Our numbers suggest this fight is nearly even, but they lean slightly towards Pico. He's known for his striking skills, which could give him an advantage over Losene Keita, who might struggle to keep up in a stand-up fight. One big risk is that Losene has shown good durability, making it tougher for Pico to finish him quickly. Still, with Pico having a significant amount of rest days compared to Keita, he should be more prepared. If he can use his striking effectively, he might just cover that spread. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Aaron Pico to Win (-135)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The odds are offering even money on Aaron Pico to win his fight against Losene Keita. Our numbers suggest this match is very close, like a toss-up, but Pico has some strong advantages working in his favor. He is known for his striking ability, which could give him the upper hand if he can keep the fight standing. The biggest risk here is that both fighters are very skilled and can finish fights quickly. If Keita manages to take Pico down, things could get tricky for him. Still, Pico's striking and experience make him a solid pick at these odds. It's worth a shot! It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Aaron Pico: last five W-L, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight
- Losene Keita: last five W-L, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 49 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Aaron Pico v Losene Keita. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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