On Saturday 24 October 2026, Colby Thicknesse takes on Asaf Chopurov in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 2.5 Total Rounds, priced at +135 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Over 2.5 Total Rounds (+135)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colby Thicknesse and Asaf Chopurov are both tough fighters, and their styles suggest this could be a long match. Thicknesse is known for his striking skills, while Chopurov often mixes in wrestling. When two fighters have different strengths, it usually leads to a more strategic fight, which can eat up time in the ring. Betting on over 2.5 rounds makes sense because both fighters have shown they can last in the cage. The fight is rated close to a coin flip, meaning it could go either way. The biggest risk here is that their fighting styles might lead to a quick finish, but if they play it smart, we could see a more drawn-out battle. It was priced at +135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Asaf Chopurov -7.5 on the Line (-185)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colby Thicknesse is a solid fighter, but he's facing a tough challenge in Asaf Chopurov, who has a significant reach advantage. This means Chopurov can strike from farther away, making it harder for Thicknesse to close the gap. To win, Thicknesse will need to find a way to get inside and make his attacks count, but that's easier said than done against someone like Chopurov. Betting on Chopurov at -7.5 looks smart here. Our numbers see him as a strong favorite, suggesting he should win by about that margin. The biggest risk is that Thicknesse could surprise with his own skills, but if Chopurov keeps his distance and plays to his strengths, he should come out on top. It was priced at -185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.40 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Aaron Pico: last five W-L, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight
  • Losene Keita: last five W-L, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 49 days since the last fight
  • Abubakar Vagaev: last five W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 91 days since the last fight
  • Jacob Malkoun: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 175 days since the last fight
  • Alexander Volkanovski: last five W-W-L-L-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 16% of career wins came by knockout, 266 days since the last fight
  • Movsar Evloev: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 10-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 217 days since the last fight
  • Alexander Volkov: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 168 days since the last fight
  • Rizvan Kuniev: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 91 days since the last fight
  • Azamat Murzakanov: last five L-W-W-W-W, lost the last fight, 35% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight
  • Dominick Reyes: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 29% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight
  • Daniel Santos: last five L-W-W-W-W, lost the last fight, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 161 days since the last fight
  • Bolaji Oki: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 224 days since the last fight
  • Grant Dawson: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 168 days since the last fight
  • Nurullo Aliev: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 9% of career wins came by knockout, 91 days since the last fight
  • Merab Dvalishvili: last five L-W-W-W-W, lost the last fight, 4% of career wins came by knockout, 322 days since the last fight
  • Petr Yan: last five W-W-W-W-L, on a 4-fight win streak, 16% of career wins came by knockout, 322 days since the last fight
  • Nicolle Caliari: last five W-L-L-W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 161 days since the last fight
  • Iasmin Lucindo: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 441 days since the last fight
  • Nikita Krylov: last five L-W-L-L-W, lost the last fight, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 105 days since the last fight
  • Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 20% of career wins came by knockout, 119 days since the last fight
  • Noah Gugnon: last five W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 84 days since the last fight
  • Kody Steele: last five W-L-W, won the last fight, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 175 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Colby Thicknesse v Asaf Chopurov. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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