As the New York Knicks take on the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Dylan Harper, but the smart money might be on him falling short of 1.5 threes made. Despite a stellar season, Harper's recent performances tell a different story, particularly on the road. Averaging just 1.2 threes over his last five games, his numbers dip further to one per game when away from home. Against the Spurs, he's been even less effective, hitting just 0.4 threes per game in their last five matchups. While he has had a strong hit rate away, going 8 for 9, the trend against San Antonio suggests he might not find the same success. With the expectations set high, betting on Harper to stay under 1.5 threes seems like a savvy move, especially given the implied probability of 63.7%. The numbers just don't align for a breakout performance tonight.
Landry Shamet (New York Knicks) Over 8.5 Points + Rebounds (-132)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishingTonight, Landry Shamet is poised to shine as the New York Knicks host the San Antonio Spurs. With a solid track record, Shamet has averaged 11.8 points and 1.6 rebounds over his last five outings, consistently eclipsing the 8.5 mark. At home, he's been even more reliable, contributing an average of 3 points and 1.8 rebounds-numbers that hint at the comfort he finds in Madison Square Garden.Against the Spurs, Shamet has shown steady performance, netting about 7.6 points in their recent encounters. With home-court advantage and a hit rate of 4 out of the last 5 games hitting his points and rebounds prop, it seems likely he'll build on that success. Given his expected stat value of 13.29 and an implied probability of 56.8%, backing Shamet for the Over feels like a savvy play. Tonight's matchup could be the perfect stage for him to exceed expectations.
Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) Over 8.5 Points + Rebounds (-161)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingAs we gear up for the matchup between the Spurs and the Knicks, Keldon Johnson stands out as a prime candidate for the over on 8.5 combined points and rebounds. Sure, his recent averages might seem modest-6.6 points and 2.4 rebounds over the last five games. But don't let those numbers fool you; when Johnson hits the road, he elevates his game to 11.2 points and 2.8 rebounds. He's been particularly effective away, hitting the over in all five of his last road games. Plus, against the Knicks, he's averaged roughly 7 points and 3.4 rebounds, which suggests a favorable matchup. With an overall hit rate of 15 out of his last 20 games, the odds are in our favor for him to exceed that 8.5 mark. The stars are aligning; Johnson is poised for a breakout in this game.
Mikal Bridges (New York Knicks) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-141)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingAs the New York Knicks host the San Antonio Spurs, Mikal Bridges is primed to shine, especially with the Over set at 14.5 for points and rebounds combined. His recent form is hard to ignore-averaging 14.8 points and 4 rebounds at home over his last five games, he's been trending upwards. Notably, when facing the Spurs at Madison Square Garden, Bridges has ramped up his performance, averaging a solid 18.6 points.The stakes are high, and Bridges has demonstrated his ability to deliver in critical moments, hitting this Over in 10 of his last 12 outings. With an expected stat value of 19.43, he seems well-positioned to exceed that 14.5 mark. Given the matchup and his recent home success, betting on Bridges to go Over is not just a smart play; it feels like a reliable bet for the game.
De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-312)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishingAs the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the New York Knicks, all eyes should be on De'Aaron Fox. With a remarkable hit rate of 16 out of his last 20 games, Fox has shown he can consistently deliver, especially on the road, where he's exceeded 14.5 points and rebounds in 10 of his last 11 outings. His average of 16.2 points away from home speaks volumes about his ability to step up in hostile environments.When facing the Knicks, Fox has historically put up around 14.4 points, and recent trends suggest he's likely to exceed that, with 15.6 points against them away. Combine that with an expected stat value of 23.7, and it's hard to ignore the potential here. With the Spurs leaning heavily on him, the Over on 14.5 feels not just enticing, but almost inevitable.
Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs) Under 7.5 Rebounds (-303)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingWhen Dylan Harper steps onto the court for the Knicks against the Spurs, the odds seem to favor a dip in his rebounding numbers. Despite his overall average of 7.2 boards per game, his recent form away from home tells a different story-he's been pulling down just 7 rebounds on average in his last five road games. Against the Spurs, his performance has been even quieter, with an average of only 5.6 rebounds. Considering Harper's recent struggles-14 of his last 18 games have seen him fall below that 7.5 mark-it's clear he's not exactly dominating the glass. The Spurs also present a tougher matchup for him defensively, decreasing his opportunities to snag those crucial rebounds. With an implied probability of 75.2%, betting the under on Harper's rebounds feels like a smart play. The numbers align, and the trend suggests he might not find his rhythm in this matchup.