On Sunday 27 September 2026, Minnesota Lynx play New York Liberty in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 173.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 173.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The Minnesota Lynx are playing at home against the New York Liberty, and both teams have been doing well lately. Minnesota has won 7 of their last 10 games and is scoring a solid 91.3 points per game. However, New York has faced a tough schedule, making their recent success more impressive, but they might struggle to keep pace with the Lynx in this matchup. Our numbers suggest that the total points for this game could be lower than expected, around 163.4. The most concrete risk here is that both teams are good at playing defense, which often leads to fewer points. So, while there's a good chance for the under at 173.5, it's important to keep in mind that it could easily go the other way too. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
New York Liberty +7.5 on the Line (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
The Minnesota Lynx are scoring a lot lately, averaging over 91 points a game, but they've only won three of their last six games. On the other hand, the New York Liberty have been strong too, winning four of their last six. Plus, they've faced some of the toughest teams in the league, which shows they can handle pressure well. Betting on New York Liberty to win with a 7.5-point cushion feels like a solid choice. The Lynx might be at home, but our numbers suggest they're only expected to win by about three points. The biggest risk here is how close these teams are performing, so it could be a nail-biter. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Jonquel Jones has been a star for the New York Liberty, but her performance dips when she plays away from home. At home, she averages 2.3 assists, but on the road, that number drops to only 1.2. This means she's less likely to dish out assists in this game against the Minnesota Lynx. The Lynx have been strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They've been playing well on both ends of the court, making it tougher for opponents to score. With Jonquel's recent struggles away, betting on her to get under 2.5 assists seems like a smart move. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Sabrina Ionescu needs to score under 16.5 points for this bet to win tonight. Although she has had some strong performances, she tends to score a bit less in the daytime games and is up against a tough Minnesota Lynx team that has been solid on defense lately. The Lynx have won seven of their last ten games and are playing at home, which often gives them an extra boost. Ionescu's scoring can be affected by the quality of the defense she faces, and tonight's matchup could be challenging. With Minnesota's recent form and Ionescu's lower scoring average in the day, this pick has a decent chance to cash in. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Napheesa Collier Under 21.5 Points and Assists (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
You can get Napheesa Collier's points and assists combined at under 21.5, and our numbers think that's a solid chance. She's been scoring well lately, but when playing at night, she averages just under 20 combined. Plus, the Lynx are on a good run, winning 7 of their last 10 games, which could mean a more balanced attack from the team. The New York Liberty have faced some tough opponents, making their schedule one of the hardest. That might limit Collier's opportunities to shine. The real risk here is that Collier sometimes steps up big in key games, so she could surprise us. Still, it feels like a good spot to take the under. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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