On Sunday 27 September 2026, Minnesota Lynx play New York Liberty in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 171.5 Total Points, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 171.5 Total Points (+110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The Minnesota Lynx are scoring a strong 91.3 points a game lately, but they also have a solid defense that can hold teams back. The New York Liberty have faced one of the toughest schedules this season, which makes their scoring numbers a bit lower. With both teams showing some good defensive plays, the combined score is likely to stay under 171.5 points. The biggest risk here is that New York has been playing well too, winning four of their last six games. Overall, it feels like there's a good chance this pick will hit. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Liberty +7 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at MyBookie at time of publishing

The Minnesota Lynx have been strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. However, the New York Liberty also have a solid record, winning 6 of their last 10 and 4 of their last 6. They've faced tough teams, which shows they can handle pressure. Plus, they have a travel advantage, having less distance to cover compared to Minnesota. Betting on New York Liberty to cover the spread of 7 points makes sense here. The teams are closely matched, and our numbers suggest a final score difference of only about 2 points. The Lynx have been good, but the Liberty can put up a fight. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Breanna Stewart Under 21.5 Points (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Betting on Breanna Stewart to score under 21.5 points at -108 seems like a solid choice. The Minnesota Lynx are in great form, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive 91.3 points a game. In contrast, the New York Liberty have had a tougher schedule, facing teams with a combined winning record. This could limit scoring opportunities for Stewart, especially since she tends to score a bit less when playing away from home. One thing to consider is that while Stewart is a strong player, she averages about 8.3 rebounds at away games, which shows she might focus more on assisting and rebounding rather than just scoring. With the Lynx's strong defense and Stewart's away numbers, it looks like a good chance for her to stay under that point total. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jonquel Jones Under 17.5 Points and Assists (-111)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Jonquel Jones has been a standout player, especially at home, but the numbers suggest she might struggle to reach her usual output against the Lynx. While she's been averaging over 13 rebounds and assists at home, the Minnesota Lynx have been tough competitors, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They've shown solid defense lately, which could make it hard for Jones to hit the mark. Even though Jonquel has been awesome at home, she averages fewer assists and rebounds on the road. With the Lynx being on a roll and limiting scoring opportunities, betting on her to score under 17.5 points and assists seems like a smart choice. Just remember, there's always a chance she could have a big game, so expect the unexpected! It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Natasha Howard Under 18.5 Points and Rebounds (-112)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Natasha Howard has been a strong player, but her recent performances show some signs of struggle. In her last few games, she's faced tough defenses, including the New York Liberty, who have been playing well lately. The Liberty have won four of their last six matches, and they play a demanding style that can limit scoring opportunities. The pick here is for Howard to score under 18.5 points and rebounds combined. Given how close the matchup is, it's a tough call-the risk is that both teams are battling hard, and Howard could surprise us. Still, with the Liberty's ability to defend effectively, this bet feels like a solid choice for now. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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