On Sunday 27 September 2026, Las Vegas Aces play Indiana Fever in the WNBA. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Indiana Fever +4 on the Line, priced at -115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Indiana Fever +4 on the Line (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The Indiana Fever have been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games, and they're scoring an impressive 96.7 points on average. While the Las Vegas Aces have also been strong, winning 6 in a row, the Fever's recent form makes this matchup close. Plus, they've got the advantage of a bit of extra rest. The bet on Indiana Fever +4 seems smart here since our numbers show this game is likely to be very tight. Just remember, the Aces are at home, which can be tough for any team. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Las Vegas Aces to Win (-154)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The Las Vegas Aces need to keep their winning streak going against the Indiana Fever tonight. The Aces have been on fire, winning their last six games and putting up a solid average of 91.1 points per game this season. They've also won eight of their last ten, showing they know how to keep the momentum going. The Fever are strong as well, winning seven of their last ten and scoring 96.7 points per game, so it won't be an easy matchup. However, the Aces are at home, and they have the advantage of better recent form. One concrete risk is that the teams are quite close in overall wins this season, but the Aces seem likely to come out on top tonight. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.50 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 191.5 Total Points (-263)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
The Las Vegas Aces are on a fantastic run, winning six straight games and scoring an impressive average of 91.1 points. However, the Indiana Fever are also doing well, with a solid average of 96.7 points over their last few games. Despite both teams' scoring abilities, our numbers suggest a combined total of about 167 points, which is quite a bit lower than the line. The biggest risk is how closely matched these teams are in terms of recent wins. Still, going with the Under 191.5 seems like a smart choice given the trend. It was priced at -263 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.80 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Caitlin Clark needs to keep her assists under 8.5 for this bet to hit. Although she has had some great games, the Las Vegas Aces are tough opponents and often focus on strong defense. With the Aces winning six games in a row and scoring a lot, it could mean Clark has to shoot more instead of passing, which lowers her assist chances. The Indiana Fever have also been doing well, but both teams are closely matched, and Clark might face extra pressure. The Aces' solid defense could make it tricky for her to find open teammates. Even with a good chance by our numbers, there's a real risk that Clark could get shut down by the Aces tonight. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
A'ja Wilson Under 27.5 Points (-111)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
A'ja Wilson has been a big part of the Las Vegas Aces' success, scoring a lot as they've won 8 of their last 10 games. She's been on fire lately, but she may face a tough challenge against the Indiana Fever, who have also been scoring well. The Fever have won 7 of their last 10, so it could be a close one. Right now, we think A'ja Wilson will score under 27.5 points in this game. The numbers show she may struggle to reach that mark, especially with the Fever's strong defense. While she can definitely light it up, the match-up suggests it could be a lower-scoring night for her. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Makayla Timpson has been on fire lately, showing she's a key player for the Indiana Fever. With her team scoring an impressive average of 96.7 points per game, there's a good chance she'll rack up over 7.5 points in this matchup against the Las Vegas Aces. The Aces have also been scoring a lot, averaging 91.1 points a game, so it should be a high-scoring affair. The biggest risk is how close the teams are in overall performance, so while it looks promising, nothing is guaranteed. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Las Vegas Aces v Indiana Fever. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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