On Friday 23 October 2026, Genoa play Juventus in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 3.5 Total Goals, priced at -370 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Genoa faces Juventus, it’s hard to overlook the recent trends that suggest a low-scoring affair. Genoa has struggled at home lately, averaging just one goal per game over their last five outings. Their lack of attacking output is mirrored in their xG stats, which show they're not creating quality chances. Juventus, while strong historically against Genoa, has also been inconsistent, scoring only 1.2 goals per game in their last five. With both teams showing a tendency to underperform offensively, especially in this matchup—where Genoa hasn’t managed a win in their last five against Juve—betting on under 3.5 total goals feels like a savvy move. The home side's defensive work and Juve's cautious approach suggest goals may be at a premium, making this a compelling case for the under.
Genoa vs Juventus: Genoa +0.75 Goal Handicap (-105)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Genoa prepares to face Juventus, there's a compelling case for backing them with a 0.75 handicap. Despite their recent struggles, including a tough home record of 1-1-3, they’ve shown resilience, averaging 12 shots per game at home. This is crucial against a Juventus side that, while historically dominant, has had its own inconsistencies with just one win in their last five away matches. Moreover, Genoa's expected goals (xG) might not reflect their potential; they’ve created opportunities but haven't converted them effectively yet. With Juve allowing 1.6 goals per game recently and Genoa needing a statement performance, this could be their moment. The historical head-to-head may favor Juventus, but recent form suggests Genoa can at least keep things close. Taking them with a 0.75 handicap feels like a smart move, considering the dynamics at play.
Genoa vs Juventus: Both Teams To Score: No (-130)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Genoa welcomes Juventus to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris, there's a compelling case for expecting a low-scoring affair. Genoa has struggled significantly at home, averaging just one goal per game while conceding two. Their attacking woes are highlighted by a mere 0 xG in their last five matches, revealing a lack of genuine scoring threats. On the flip side, Juventus, while slightly more productive with 1.4 goals away, also faces challenges, managing only 1.2 goals conceded. Their recent dominance over Genoa, winning four of the last five encounters, suggests they can stifle the home side effectively. With both teams struggling to generate quality chances, the ‘No’ on Both Teams to Score feels like the smarter play here, especially given the recent trends that paint a picture of defensive resilience over attacking flair.
That is how our model reads Genoa v Juventus. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article