Here are our EPL picks for Friday 16 October 2026. Our model likes 9 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Goals, priced at -625 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking for the best Premier League picks for same-game parlays this weekend? Here are the 5 multis our model likes most for the upcoming round, built only from legs where our number beats the price.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Chelsea prepares to host Tottenham in this tightly contested London derby, the stats lean heavily towards goals. Chelsea has found their rhythm at home, averaging 2.8 goals in their last five matches at Stamford Bridge, while also conceding around two per game. They've been a relentless attacking force, racking up 13.8 shots per game, highlighting their ability to create chances. On the flip side, Tottenham is struggling on the road, managing only 0.8 goals in their last away fixtures. However, they've shown signs of life, and their attacking prowess could spark a response against a rival. With Chelsea boasting a perfect 5-0-0 record against Spurs in their last five encounters, expect them to capitalize on Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities. The combination of Chelsea’s home form and Tottenham’s need to break their scoring drought makes 'Over 1.5 goals' a compelling bet in this clash.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Coventry City prepares to host Fulham, the recent form heavily favors the home side. Coventry boasts a solid home record, winning three of their last five at Sky Blue Stadium, while Fulham has struggled significantly on the road, managing just two draws in their last five outings. Coventry has been particularly effective at home, scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game over their last five matches, while Fulham's away woes are evident, with a paltry 0.4 goals per game. The xG numbers paint a similar picture; Coventry is generating solid chances, while Fulham's attacking metrics have been alarmingly low. Moreover, Coventry has a perfect head-to-head record against Fulham in their last five encounters, winning twice. Given these trends and the confidence of the home crowd, a bet on Coventry City to cover the 0.5 handicap looks increasingly promising.
Coventry City vs Fulham: Both Teams To Score: No (+130)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Coventry City prepares to host Fulham, a closer look at the recent form reveals a compelling case for betting on "No" for both teams to score. Coventry’s home advantage has seen them net an average of 2.4 goals in their last five games at home, but their defense has also tightened, conceding just 1.8 goals. Conversely, Fulham has struggled mightily on the road, failing to score more than 0.4 goals per away game recently. Their attacking woes are underscored by an xG that suggests they’re generating little threat, averaging just 0 per game. Moreover, both teams’ recent head-to-heads show Coventry winning without conceding. Given Fulham's dismal scoring record away combined with Coventry's solid home defense, it seems likely that this matchup may end in a low-scoring affair. In essence, the trends are favoring a 'No' on both teams scoring.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to face Brighton, the stakes couldn't be higher. Despite a mixed bag in recent home form, the Reds have a compelling reason to believe they can secure a win here. Their last five outings at Anfield saw them create an average of 14.4 shots per game, demonstrating their relentless attacking intent, even if they're struggling to convert chances—averaging just 0.8 goals at home lately. Brighton, while a resilient side, has shown vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 1.4 goals away. The expected goals (xG) statistics tell a similar story, highlighting that Liverpool’s offensive pressure can exploit any defensive lapses. With the odds leaning in Liverpool’s favor, a Draw No Bet on the home side feels like a confident choice. They may not be firing on all cylinders, but the potential for a crucial three points is too enticing to ignore.
Liverpool vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-588)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to face Brighton, the stage is set for a match that promises to deliver at least a couple of goals. Despite some inconsistent performances recently—evident in their home record of 0-4-1 over the last five—Liverpool has maintained a solid attacking presence. They've averaged 14.4 shots at home, indicating their intent, even if they’ve struggled to convert chances lately. Brighton, on the other hand, has shown resilience in their attacking play. When these two teams meet, history suggests goals are likely, and with Liverpool's ability to bounce back, the odds favor the over on 1.5 goals. Considering the attacking potential mixed with both teams’ recent trends, betting on over 1.5 goals feels like a prudent choice. It’s a scenario where the law of averages and attacking stats align, setting the stage for a lively encounter.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Manchester United welcomes Bournemouth this Sunday, the form guide paints a compelling picture for those considering a Draw No Bet on the Cherries. United's recent home struggles are glaring; they've managed just one win in their last five at Old Trafford, with a dismal record against Bournemouth, losing four of their last five encounters. Meanwhile, Bournemouth, despite their own away woes, have shown resilience, particularly against top teams. When you dive into the stats, Bournemouth's attack may not be booming, but they’ve been involved in tight contests, averaging 1.2 goals while conceding 2.0. United, on the other hand, has averaged just 1.8 goals in their last five overall, and even less at home. With Bournemouth's price at 3.0, this bet captures their potential to spring a surprise in a matchup where the odds are stacked against the Red Devils.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: Bournemouth +1.5 Goal Handicap (-278)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Manchester United gears up to face Bournemouth, it’s hard to ignore the trends favoring the Cherries, especially given United's rocky form at home, where they've mustered just one win in their last five. Their recent record against Bournemouth is particularly concerning, with a dismal 0-4-1 standing in their last five encounters. On the other hand, Bournemouth has been resilient, even if their overall away form has been shaky. They tend to keep things tight defensively, allowing an average of just two goals per game on the road. With United struggling to convert their chances—averaging 1.8 goals at home but facing a steady Bournemouth defense—it feels like a perfect storm for Bournemouth to cover that 1.5 handicap. The stats underscore a Bournemouth team that can frustrate United’s offense, making this bet a compelling choice as the two sides clash.
Odds correct at time of publishing
When Leeds United takes on Manchester United, the recent form and underlying stats heavily favor the visitors. Leeds has struggled at home, registering just one win in their last five outings, while their attack has been inconsistent, averaging only 1.4 goals per game. Manchester United, despite their own ups and downs, has shown glimpses of offensive prowess, scoring an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches. What’s telling is Leeds’ defensive vulnerability; they’ve conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match against teams that have been finding the net more frequently. With United's away form holding steady, combined with their superior shot statistics—20.8 attempts per game compared to Leeds’ 12.2—backing Manchester United to cover a 0.5 handicap seems a savvy bet. Expect them to take control and secure crucial points in this encounter.
Leeds United vs Manchester United: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-476)
Odds correct at time of publishing
When Leeds United hosts Manchester United, expect fireworks. Recent form shows Leeds scoring an average of 1.8 goals at home, while Manchester's away outings yield about 1.2 goals. Leeds' attacking prowess has been evident, with 13 shots per game at home. They also have a knack for stepping up against the big clubs, as their last five meetings with Manchester ended with both teams scoring. On the flip side, United’s away games have seen them produce an impressive 20.8 shots per match. Given their combined xG and the attacking play on both sides, it’s hard to envision this match finishing with fewer than two goals. With historical trends leaning towards a high-scoring affair, betting on over 1.5 total goals feels like a savvy move for this Sunday showdown.
That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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