Zay Flowers (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data for Zay Flowers does not provide a strong backing for a bet on him scoring a touchdown in the 'player_anytime_td' market. His overall hit rate is low (8/47), and his recent performance is even less promising, with an overall hit rate of 0/10 in the last 10 games. Even when focusing on his performance at home, the hit rate remains the same (0/10). Furthermore, his record against the Pittsburgh Steelers is unconvincing with a 1/3 hit rate overall, and 0/1 when playing at home. His current hit streak in all categories is also zero, indicating he hasn't scored a touchdown in recent games. Even though there's a model edge of 0.179771101458716, the underlying performance data for Flowers suggests a high risk in this bet. As such, this bet may not offer a satisfactory return on investment, based on historical scoring patterns.

Rashod Bateman (BAL) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting the under for Rashod Bateman's player reception yards appears statistically sound given his recent performance. Over his last five games, regardless of the location or opponent, Bateman has not surpassed the 21.5-yard mark, demonstrated by an overall hit rate of 0/5. At home, his performance is equally uninspiring with a hit rate of 0/5. The trend remains consistent when looking at his last 10 and 20 games, with an overall hit rate of 1/10 and 2/20 respectively. Despite having a slightly better performance against the Steelers (2/3), this is not enough to inspire confidence in his ability to exceed the 21.5-yard threshold. Furthermore, his current streak of not meeting this mark, both overall and at home, further consolidates the rationale for betting under. It's worth noting the model edge of 0.177, indicating the model sees value in this under bet.

Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-137)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Derrick Henry for Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market for the Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers game seems like a reasonable wager based on Henry's recent performance and trends. Firstly, Henry has a relatively low overall hit rate of 1/3 against Pittsburgh and has never hit at home against them. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is 60% (12/20), but this drops to 50% (7/10) over the last 10 games, indicating a downward trend. Moreover, his hit rate at home over the last 10 games is 70% (7/10), but it drops to 40% (2/5) over the last 5 games. Furthermore, he's currently on a hit streak of 0 against Pittsburgh, suggesting he's not performing well against this specific opponent. Based on these trends, the statistical rationale supports a bet for Under 1.5 receptions for Derrick Henry.

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