Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting the under on Keaton Mitchell's rushing yards seems justified based on his recent performance and hit rates. Mitchell's overall hit rate in the last 10 games has been low, at 2 out of 10, which shows a trend of underachievement. This underperformance is consistent in home games as well, with a hit rate of just 2 out of 9. When playing against the Cincinnati Bengals, Mitchell's hit rate is even worse, failing to hit the mark in the last game they played. His overall current hit streak stands at zero, further indicating his recent struggles. Therefore, the data suggests that Mitchell is likely to rush for under 21.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Bengals.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

While Lamar Jackson is an elite player, the statistics suggest a cautious approach towards betting on him to score a touchdown anytime in the game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Jackson hasn't scored a touchdown in his last 10 overall games, his last 10 home games, and his last 5 games against the Bengals. He also hasn't scored a touchdown in his last 3 home games against Cincinnati. Furthermore, Jackson's overall hit rate is only 10 out of 57, and his home hit rate is 5 out of 28. Against the Bengals, he has had 0 hits out of 5 attempts, and at home against Cincinnati, he has scored 0 out of 3 times. These statistics, combined with a model edge of 0.174, suggest that a bet on Jackson to score a touchdown at any point in the game is a high-risk proposition.

Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-152)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The data shows a strong betting rationale for Keaton Mitchell to finish with Under 1.5 receptions in the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. Mitchell's overall hit rate for under 1.5 receptions is 12/15, a solid 80%. This trend is even more pronounced at home, where he has hit the under 1.5 receptions mark in all 9 recent games. When playing against the Bengals, Mitchell consistently performs below this threshold, maintaining a perfect record both overall and at home. Furthermore, Mitchell is currently on a hit streak of 1 for the overall under, 9 for home games under, and 1 against the Bengals, both overall and at home. Considering the model edge of 14.6%, it is statistically reasonable to place a bet on Mitchell recording under 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game. His recent performance and trends support this conclusion.

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