Adam Livingston vs Hunter Smith Prediction & Picks: Stat-Based Insights

On Wednesday 2 September 2026, Adam Livingston takes on Hunter Smith in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Hunter Smith to Win, priced at +145 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Hunter Smith to Win (+145)

Hunter Smith has a good chance to win against Adam Livingston. Smith is known for his striking, which could really pay off in this fight. He also has a reach advantage of over 71 inches, allowing him to keep opponents at a distance while landing his punches. This is important because it gives him more opportunities to score without taking damage. On the other hand, both fighters are close in age and skill, which adds a bit of uncertainty to the matchup. While Smith is the underdog, he definitely has a real shot to pull off the win. Expect a competitive fight, but Smith's style and reach might just give him the upper hand. It was priced at +145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Adam Livingston: last five L, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 348 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Adam Livingston v Hunter Smith. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.