On Saturday 26 September 2026, Ricky Simon takes on Montel Jackson in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Montel Jackson -3.5 on the Line, priced at -105 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Montel Jackson -3.5 on the Line (-105)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Ricky Simon and Montel Jackson are both tough fighters, but Jackson has a few key advantages. He's younger and has a longer reach, which can help him keep Simon at bay. Jackson's striking ability will be important here; if he can land clean shots and stay on his feet, he could control the fight. The risk is that Simon is known for his toughness and could push Jackson into a tough spot. Still, our numbers suggest Jackson should win by about four points. Betting on Montel Jackson to win by more than 3.5 points makes sense given these factors. It's a close matchup, but Jackson looks like he can take it. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Montel Jackson to Win (-200)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Ricky Simon is a solid wrestler, but Montel Jackson has some serious striking skills that could give him the upper hand. Jackson is younger and brings a fresh energy to the fight, which might make a big difference. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to win this matchup. The real risk here is that if Simon can take the fight to the ground, he might control the pace and the action. Still, Jackson's striking power and speed could be enough to keep Simon at bay. With Jackson's strong chance to win, betting on him looks like a smart move. It was priced at -200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Ricky Simon: last five L-W-W-L-L, lost the last fight, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 322 days since the last fight
- Montel Jackson: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 21% of career wins came by knockout, 154 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Ricky Simon v Montel Jackson. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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