Ricky Simon vs Montel Jackson Prediction & Picks: Analytics Breakdown

On Saturday 26 September 2026, Ricky Simon takes on Montel Jackson in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Ricky Simon to Win, priced at +149 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Ricky Simon to Win (+149)

Ricky Simon is stepping into the octagon against Montel Jackson in what looks like a very tight matchup. Simon's style as a grappler means he'll likely try to take the fight to the ground, where he can use his skills. Jackson, being more of a striker, will want to keep it standing and land his punches. The fight is rated as close to a coin flip, so it could go either way. One risk is the reach difference, with Jackson having longer arms, which could give him an advantage in striking. Still, with Simon's grappling ability and solid game plan, he has a real chance to come out on top. It was priced at +149 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.90 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Ricky Simon: last five L-W-W-L-L, lost the last fight, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 314 days since the last fight
• Montel Jackson: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 21% of career wins came by knockout, 146 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Ricky Simon v Montel Jackson. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.