On Saturday 26 September 2026, Christian Edwards takes on Rodolfo Bellato in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Rodolfo Bellato -3.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Rodolfo Bellato -3.5 on the Line (-110)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Christian Edwards and Rodolfo Bellato are set to clash in a tight matchup. Edwards is known for his striking, while Bellato tends to have a strong grappling game. This fight is expected to be very close, but Bellato has a slight advantage in durability, which might help him last longer and push through tough moments. Betting on Bellato to win by at least four points makes sense because our numbers suggest he'll likely finish a bit ahead. The risk here is that both fighters are closely matched, so it could go either way. Even with this uncertainty, Bellato's skills give him a good chance to come out on top. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+145)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Christian Edwards and Rodolfo Bellato both like to finish fights quickly, which makes this matchup exciting. Edwards is known for his striking, while Bellato is a tough grappler. With both fighters eager to end the fight early, it seems likely we won't see many rounds. Betting on under 1.5 rounds makes sense here, especially since our numbers suggest they could combine for less than one round. The biggest risk is that these fighters are pretty evenly matched, so it could go longer if they counter each other well. Still, the way they fight points to a quick finish in this one. It was priced at +145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Rodolfo Bellato to Win (-175)
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Christian Edwards has strong striking skills, but Rodolfo Bellato is a skilled wrestler who can take the fight to the ground. Bellato's grappling could be the key, making it tough for Edwards to keep the fight standing where he feels comfortable. Our numbers suggest Bellato has a good chance of winning this matchup. One risk to consider is that the fight could stay on the feet longer if Edwards can keep Bellato at bay. However, Bellato's wrestling may be too much for Edwards to handle, especially as he looks to control the pace and location of the fight. Overall, backing Bellato to win this fight seems like a smart choice. It was priced at -175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Christian Edwards: last five L, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 133 days since the last fight
- Rodolfo Bellato: last five W-L-W-W-L, won the last fight, 17% of career wins came by knockout, 203 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Christian Edwards v Rodolfo Bellato. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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