Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 17 September 2026. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Liudmila Samsonova to win the match, priced at +370 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Marta Kostyuk vs Liudmila Samsonova: Liudmila Samsonova to win the match (+370)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Marta Kostyuk faces Liudmila Samsonova at Guadalajara Open on Thursday 17 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Liudmila Samsonova wins the match. It was priced at +370 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $47 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. In the matchup between Marta Kostyuk and Liudmila Samsonova, the value lies with Samsonova at 4.7 due to a few key indicators. Additionally, while specific serve statistics are lacking, Kostyuk's opponents have shown a solid first-serve percentage of 57.6%, winning 74.9% of their first points, indicating pressure on Kostyuk's serve. In contrast, Samsonova can exploit this vulnerability, especially on hard courts where her recent form has been decent. Her ability to capitalize on break points will be crucial, especially against a player like Kostyuk, who may struggle under pressure.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.